Japan vs Paraguay Prediction: Samurai Blue can make home advantage count

Japan breezed through their World Cup 2026 qualifying campaign, and they take on a Paraguay side, who will also be heading to the showpiece next summer, in a friendly fixture at Panasonic Stadium Suita on Friday (11:20 BST).

The visitors had a tougher path to the USA, Mexico and Canada, and they managed to impress in South American qualifying, finishing sixth in the standings to secure the final automatic qualification place. Below are my Japan vs Paraguay predictions, supported by all the latest team news and match odds.

Team News

Japan have a strong contingent of European-based players in their squad, including Premier League pair Daichi Kamada and Ao Tanaka of Crystal Palace and Leeds United respectively.

QPR midfielder Koki Saito is the only uncapped player in the Japan squad, while Celtic’s Daizen Maeda and in-form Feyenoord forward Ayase Ueda are among some strong attacking options available to boss Hajime Moriyasu.

Football Odds

Paraguay also have a few Premier League players in their squad as Brighton’s Diego Gomez and Sunderland defender Omar Alderete have been selected. Manchester United’s Diego Leon, 18, is one of four uncapped players in the Los Guaranies side.

Today's Football Fixtures

Japan vs Paraguay Odds

Japan are the favourites to win at 5/6 and Paraguay are 7/2, or a 22.2% chance, to pick up a victory, while a draw can be backed at 5/2.

Both of these sides have fairly strong defensive records as Japan have three clean sheets in their last four games and Paraguay only conceded 10 goals in 18 qualifying games. This is reflected in the both teams to score market as a Both Teams To Score - No result is 4/5, with Yes priced at 1/1.

Japan to win @ 5/6

Home advantage could be a key factor here as Japan have a formidable record on home soil. The Blue Samurai are on a 16-game unbeaten run in Japan and have won 14 of those games, while Paraguay only picked up one victory in nine attempts on their travels during South American World Cup 2026 qualifying - and that came at a Peru side who had already been eliminated in the final round of fixtures.

Paraguay were also arguably lucky to come out on top in Lima, and they may find this slick Japan side too strong on Friday.

The hosts look to have a stronger and fresher attack, and that could be another key difference here.

Maeda and Ueda are competing with Borussia Monchengladbach forward Shuto Machino and Koki Ogawa for starting spots, and between Japan’s four forwards, they have 27 goals in 77 caps.

Paraguay have selected five forwards, but they have a combined total of just 14 goals from 103 caps. They also rely on the experienced pair Angel Romero and Miguel Almiron, who are the joint-top international scorers in this squad with eight goals apiece.

Ayase Ueda (JPN) to score anytime @ 7/4

Ueda has made an exceptional start to the season in the Dutch top tier with eight goals in as many Eredivisie games for Feyenoord.

The 27-year-old also has a strong scoring record for his country with 14 goals in 32 games, making him the leading international scorer among Japan’s attacking quartet, and he looks like a strong candidate for an anytime effort on Friday.

Offers

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