Italy v Moldova Prediction: Azzurri to make amends in must-win clash

Italy will look to get their World Cup qualifying campaign back on track when they host lowly Moldova at Mapei Stadium in Reggio Emilia on Monday evening. Luciano Spalletti’s side are desperate for a convincing performance after a string of underwhelming results. The Azzurri are under mounting pressure after failing to win any of their last four matches, including a limp defeat to Norway that has raised serious questions about Spalletti’s tactical approach and team selection.

With World Cup qualification hopes hanging in the balance, only a comprehensive victory will suffice against a Moldova side ranked 154th in the world. Read on for my Italy v Moldova predictions, supported by the latest team news and match odds.

Football Odds

Team news

Spalletti is expected to ring the changes after Italy’s latest setback, with several senior players under scrutiny.

Gianluigi Donnarumma will continue in goal, while Alessandro Bastoni and Giovanni Di Lorenzo may be joined by Federico Gatti in the back three.

Davide Frattesi and Federico Di Marco could add some spark in the midfield and wing-back positions, with Giacomo Raspadori reprising his role behind Mateo Retegui attack.

Moldova, meanwhile, have struggled for goals and consistency, failing to score in defeats to Norway and Poland in their last two outings.

Head coach Serghei Cleșcenco is without suspended full-back Maxim Cojacaru, who was sent off in a 3-2 defeat to Estonia in March.

Lone striker Ion Nicolaescu - the Tricolorii's all-time top scorer with 17 goals - will rely on support from Mihail Caimacov breaking from midfield in Clescenco’s usual 4-5-1 set-up.

Match odds

Italy are overwhelming 1/14 favourites to claim all three points, reflecting the gulf in class between the sides. Moldova can be backed at 28/1, while the draw is priced at 10/1.

Over 2.5 goals is available at 2/7, with Italy to win to nil at 2/7 and the Azzurri to cover a -2 handicap at 7/10.

Italy -2 Handicap @ 7/10

Italy have won all five previous meetings with Moldova, including a 6-0 thrashing in their most recent encounter in Florence.

The Azzurri have averaged three goals per game against Moldova and will be eager to rediscover their scoring touch after a run of moribund attacking displays.

Moldova have conceded five to Norway, three to Estonia and two to Poland in their last three matches, and their defensive frailties are likely to be exposed again by a motivated Italian side.

Backing Italy to cover a two-goal handicap looks a solid play, especially given their record of comfortable wins over weaker opposition.

Correct Score - Italy 3-0 @ 5/1

Moldova have not scored a goal against a top-30 ranked opponent in almost two years and their recent displays hardly suggest they will break that trend in Reggio Emilia.

Clescenco’s side did create two big chances and recorded four shots on goal in a 5-0 home loss to Norway earlier this year, but they lack a clinical striker capable of consistently putting the ball in the back of the net.

They conceded three goals away to Sweden and Czechia in their Euro 2024 qualifying matches and shipped an average of three goals per game in the last World Cup qualifying campaign.

With Spalletti demanding a reaction and a more disciplined defensive effort, Italy should be able to record a 3-0 win against a side lacking attacking quality.

Giacomo Raspadori anytime goalscorer @ 5/6

Giacomo Raspadori has been a potent force for club and country this season, netting five goals in his last nine Serie A starts and two in the Azzurri’s Nations League campaign.

The Napoli attacker should be full of confidence after his role in the club’s Scudetto success and can pop up to finish off any chances created by Atalanta striker Retegui’s movement and presence in the box.

Raspadori recorded the most goal involvements (2 goals & 3 assists) of any Italian player in the Nations League with a ratio of 0.56 goals per 90 minutes.

Football Betting Tips from Betfred Insights.