Italy vs Turkey Prediction: Montella magic won’t work on Spalletti

Italy and Turkey meet in an international friendly at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara on Tuesday (20:00, Premier Sports 2), as both nations gear up for the European Championship in Germany later this month.

Read below for my Italy vs Turkey prediction ahead of this contest in Bologna.

Team News

Luciano Spalletti recently cut Francesco Acerbi from his extended squad after the Inter Milan defender underwent groin surgery.

Atalanta pair Gianluca Scamacca and Giorgio Scalvini both played in their side's Serie A season finale against Fiorentina on Sunday and weren't due to join up with the squad until later in the week. Scamacca still will, but Scalvini suffered an ACL injury during the latter stages of La Dea's 3-2 defeat and will now miss the Euros.

In Scamacca's absence on Tuesday, Mateo Retegui is likely to be deployed as the central striker.

Another player to suffer late injury heartbreak is former Leicester City defender Caglar Soyuncu, who has been dropped from the Turkey national team after suffering a thigh muscle injury in Fenerbache's 6-0 final-day victory over Istanbulspor.

A familiar face to Italian supporters will be Inter's Hakan Calhanoglu, who was recently named Serie A midfielder of the year.

Italy vs Turkey Odds

*Please click on the link above to be taken to the main Italy vs Turkey page on betfred.com (or app) for all the live betting prices on this match.

Italy have triumphed in the previous two head-to-heads and are 3/5, or a 62.5% chance, to make it a hat-trick on Tuesday. Turkey are 5/1, giving them an implied win probability of 16.7%, while the draw can be backed at 11/4.

Both teams to score is available at 4/5 and over 2.5 goals at 8/11.

Mateo Retegui first goalscorer @ 9/2

Spalletti only included three central strikers - Scamacca, Retegui and Giacomo Raspadori - in his provisional squad, with the former currently favourite to lead the line in Germany after a sensational goalscoring end to the campaign with Atalanta culminated in the Europa League trophy.

Retegui and Raspadori are battling to play second fiddle, but it's Retegui who currently has the edge after scoring twice on his last national team start, which brought his total up to four in six caps compared to six in 26 for Raspadori, who hasn't started a game for Napoli since March 30.

As a result, it's Retegui who is more likely to begin Tuesday's game, marking him out as hot favourite to open the scoring in Bologna.

The Genoa forward had a solid if unspectacular campaign for his club side, scoring seven times in 29 Serie A appearances as a few niggling injuries disrupted his flow. He did bag twice in the Coppa Italia, too, and struck the opening goal of the game in a 3-3 draw with AC Milan on May 5.

Italy or draw & both teams to score @ 11/10

Italy have lost just once in eight matches under the stewardship of Spalletti - a 3-1 defeat to England at Wembley in October - and will expect to extend their unbeaten run to five games in front of their supporters on Tuesday.

Turkey enjoyed a terrific qualification campaign for the Euros, topping a group containing Croatia and Wales, while they also beat Germany 3-2 in an international friendly in Berlin last November.

However, they lost both friendlies in March, being beaten 1-0 by Hungary in Budapest before a 6-1 hammering at the hands of Austria in Vienna.

Former Italy international Vincenzo Montella, now in charge of Turkey, will be desperate to get one over his home nation, but recent signs aren't promising.

Given it's an international friendly on the back of a long season, one which only recently came to an end in both Italy and Turkey, I'm reluctant to fully back a result either way, though I would be surprised to see the Italians lose on home soil.

Take the double chance on Spalletti's side and add both teams to score to boost the odds above evens. BTTS - Yes has landed in five of the former Napoli manager's eight games in charge and in three of Turkey's last four matches.

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