Italy vs Bosnia-Herzegovina Prediction: Gli Azzurri to grind out win

After being held to a goalless draw by Turkey in Bologna on Tuesday, Italy boss Luciano Spalletti will be expecting a response from his side when they face Bosnia-Herzegovina in their final pre-Euro 2024 friendly on Sunday (19:45, Premier Sports).

Ahead of this international friendly at Stadio Carlo Castellani in Empoli, you can check out my Italy vs Bosnia-Herzegovina prediction below, and read up on all the latest team news and match odds.

Team News

Spalletti announced his final 26-man squad for Euro 2024 on Thursday, with Ivan Provedel, Samuele Ricci and Riccardo Orsoloni all left out.

Gianluca Scamacca is expected to be Italy's central striker in Germany and should be given a start on Sunday after missing the draw with Turkey due to his involvement in Atalanta's 3-2 final-day Serie A defeat to Fiorentina last weekend.

Captain and goalkeeper Gianluigi Donnarumma sat out on Tuesday but should return to the starting XI in Empoli, but Nicolo Barella - despite being named in the Euros squad - will miss out through injury again.

Bosnia-Herzegovina left all-time record goalscorer Edin Dzeko on the bench against England, but the 38-year-old is surely set to start on Sunday, injury permitting.

Italy vs Bosnia-Herzegovina Odds

*Please click on the link above to be taken to the main Italy vs Bosnia-Herzegovina page on betfred.com (or app) for all the live betting prices on this match.

Unsurprisingly, Italy start this one as huge favorites, with odds of 1/4 giving them an implied win probability of 80%, while Bosnia-Herzegovina can be backed at 12/1 (7.7%) to cause an upset.

The draw is available at 9/2, both teams to score at 6/4, and over 2.5 goals at 4/5.

Gianluca Scamacca first goalscorer @ 7/2

Scamacca was conspicuous by his absence on Tuesday as Italy toiled against Turkey in Bologna. In fairness, Matei Retegui - and later Giacomo Raspadori - was given very little service at the top end of the pitch.

But Scamacca is a striker who can occupy players all by himself, and he enjoyed a much more successful season than both Retegui and Raspadori, who struck seven and five times respectively in the Serie A campaign just gone by.

Scamacca scored 12 times in 29 league appearances for Atalanta, adding a further six in 11 Europa League outings as La Dea went on to lift their first European title.

The former West Ham United forward was actually left out of Spaletti's squad for the March friendlies against Venezuela and Ecuador, but he responded superbly to that snub to hit 10 goals in his final 15 appearances.

I don't envisage many goals on Sunday, with Gli Azzurri failing to break down Turkey earlier in the week, but if someone is to get on the scoresheet I'd back it to be Scamacca, and should he start, he's decent value to strike first.

Italy to win & under 2.5 total goals @ 9/5

Italy sides of old have been lauded for their steely defence, even if they haven't had the flair to match it up front.

However, their current crop of attackers is surely one of the weakest they have had going into a major tournament. Scamacca aside, many of their forwards have been struggling for form, notably Federico Chiesa, Retegui and Raspadori, all of whom failed to make an impact against Turkey.

There were a few high-scoring games in their Euro 2024 qualifying group as they beat Malta 4-0, lost to England 3-1, and beat North Macedonia 5-2 in a three-game sequence, but three of their last four games have seen two or fewer goals scored.

Italy's last win, against Ecuador on March 24, saw them record a 2-0 victory, with Lorenzo Pellegrini netting in the third minute and Barella adding a second deep into second-half stoppage time.

Bosnia-Herzegovina, meanwhile, held out until the hour-mark against England on Monday before a Cole Palmer penalty broke their brave resistance. Still, it took the Three Lions until the 85th minute to get their second through Trent Alexander-Arnold, before Harry Kane struck a third four minutes later.

I don't see many issues for Italy on Sunday, at least in terms of their own goal being troubled, but I have doubts over whether they can really punish this Bosnia-Herzegovina side and send out a message ahead of their upcoming Euro 2024 group games with Albania, Spain and Croatia.

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