Italy vs Albania Prediction: 1-0 to the Defending Champs is a good bet

 | Friday 14th June 2024, 7:45am

Friday 14th June 2024, 7:45am

Italy vs Albania Euro 2024 Predictions Betting Tips

Defending European Champions get their competition under way on Saturday evening in the 20:00 kick-off, set to be broadcast live on BBC One.

Our Italian Football expert Daniele Fisichella will be following them for their whole journey with us on Betfred Insights and he's expecting a low-scoring affair. You can read why in his Italy vs Albania Predictions below...

Italy vs Albania Euro 2024 Betting Tips

  • Under 2.5 Goals @ 4/5
  • Italy to Win to Nil @ 1/1
  • Correct Score - Italy 1-0 Albania @ 9/2

*Please click on the linked odds above to add this selection directly to your betslip on betfred.com (or app).

The holders aim to kick off their Euro 2024 campaign just as they did three years ago, with a commanding victory. Group B is no easy ride, featuring heavyweights Spain and Croatia, both ranked in FIFA’s top 10.

Facing Albania, the second lowest-ranked team in the tournament, offers Italy a chance to start strong. However, Italy’s qualification was secured in the final match, marred by controversy over a denied penalty for Ukraine that could have sent the Azzurri to the play-offs.

This match marks Luciano Spalletti’s tenth game as Italy's head coach, with his side losing only once, to England (3-1 in qualifiers), and winning three of the last four friendlies.

Despite lacking a world-class star, Italy will rely on organization, style of play, and teamwork to regain their former glory. Gianluca Scamacca’s recent form (12 goals since March) is a positive sign, but Italy’s debut might not be a goal fest despite their opponents’ lack of international experience.

Albania, under the guidance of Sylvinho since last September, have been a revelation in the qualifiers. The former Arsenal and Barcelona defender switched the team to an attacking 4-2-3-1 and, with the support of the Tirana’s FA, scouted globally for players of Albanian descent.

This approach paid off with significant contributions from players like Jasir Asani and Mirlind Daku, who played crucial roles in topping their group ahead of Poland and Czech Republic.

The Red and Blacks blend youth and experience, with many players familiar with Italian football. Despite recent friendly losses to Chile and Sweden, Albania were only narrowly defeated once (1-0 by Poland) in the qualifiers and have shown resilience over the last three years.

Team News:

Italy's probable starting line-up in a 3-5-2 formation includes four Inter Milan players: Matteo Darmian, Alessandro Bastoni, Nicolo Barella, and Federico Dimarco.

Torino’s Alessandro Buongiorno is set to anchor the three-man defence, in front of goalkeeper Gianluigi Donnarumma, due to the absences of Acerbi and Scalvini.

In midfield, Jorginho and Nicolo Barella will be pivotal, tasked with controlling the game and feeding the ball to Federico Chiesa and Gianluca Scamacca, with width provided by wing-backs Dimarco and Bellanova.

Albania's solid formation ensures plenty of men behind the ball, with Hysaj strong on the left and experienced Thomas Strakosha in goal.

The Albanians will feature several Serie A players, including defenders Marash Kumbulla and Berat Djimsiti. Sassuolo midfielder Nedim Bajrami will be supported by Jasir Asani of Gwangju FC and Dinamo Zagreb’s Arijanet Hoxha. Fulham’s Armando Broja is expected to lead the attack, with his movement crucial for creating space and opportunities.

Italy vs Albania Odds

*Please click on the link above to be taken to the main Italy vs Albania Euro 2024 market page on betfred.com (or app) for all the live betting prices on this match.

Italy are huge favourites (2/5) to win Saturday’s match in Dortmund. The Azzurri were 3-1 winners the last time these two sides met in November 2022, with goals from Ismajli, Di Lorenzo, and Grifo. The Italians have only lost two of their last 18 Euro group stage matches. Under Spalletti, they've lost once and scored in all but one of ten games.

Albania are at their second major tournament appearance, with one win and two defeats at Euro 2016. Sylvinho’s men, who have not lost in their last seven competitive games, are hugely priced (8/1) for a victory, and the draw pays 7/2.

Italy have kept Albania at bay in three of their last four meetings, achieving a victory in three of the last four encounters.

There have been over 3.5 goals in three of Italy's last four competitive games, but since this is their debut at the tournament, a tight match might be expected. In fact, the odds for Over 2.5 Goals (10/11) are higher than the ones for Under 2.5 (4/5).

Under 2.5 Goals @ 4/5

Despite Albania's lower ranking, Italy's recent qualification struggles and transitional phase under Luciano Spalletti suggest this match won't be a walkover. With key players injured and no standout stars, betting on Italy's dominant win might not represent value.

With many players familiar with Italian football, Albania are not to be underestimated. Their solid performance in qualifiers suggests they can hold their own, but they’re up against a tough opponent. Betting on a low-scoring match could be wise, given Sylvinho can count on a solid defence.

Italy to win to nil @ 1/1

Albania’s main goal is to stay in contention for a knockout spot, aiming to avoid a heavy defeat. Recalling their narrow 1-0 loss to Switzerland in Euro 2016, Albania might opt for a tight defensive setup. Italy, not in their best form, might also play cautiously.

Given the historical dominance in this fixture, a bet on Italy to win to nil could represent good value at even odds.

Correct Score Prediction: Italy 1-0 Albania @ 9/2

This match is likely to be a low-scoring affair. Italy is expected to dominate, but they don’t seem yet capable of sweeping off oppositions.

Albania has shown defensive resilience, but their attack is untested against top sides. Gianluigi Donnarumma is Italy’s best player, and betting on him to keep a clean sheet is a smart move given his track record and importance to the team.

Betfred Match Offers:

Goal Fever

Throughout Euro 2024, Betfred are offering all customers a 25% cash bonus if your selected team in the Match Result market wins by 3+ Goals on selected matches. Italy vs Albania is part of this promotion, so if you back and team and they win by three or more, you would see 25% added to your winnings on that bet.

Daniele Fisichella primarily covers Italian football for us here at Betfred Insights and he'll be following the Italian national side throughout the Euro's for us. You can check out his and all the other Football Betting Tips from our writing staff on our main Football hub page.

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