Ipswich vs Derby Prediction: Tractor Boys to find first win?

The transfer window is hotting up and Ipswich Town have been busy this week as they try to finalise a squad that is ready to challenge for automatic promotion. Ipswich were pre-season favourites for promotion but are yet to pick up a win, as they fell to a 1-0 defeat to Preston North End last time out.

Their next test comes at Portman Road against Derby County (15:00), and below you can find my Ipswich vs Derby predictions.

Team News

Darnell Furlong and surprisingly, Norwich City midfielder Marcelino Nunez, look likely to join the club as Ipswich ramp things up in the transfer market. That Nunez transfer is one of the stories of the summer in the Championship, as no player has moved directly from Norwich to Ipswich in the last 24 years. 

Those new arrivals are unlikely to be included in the squad this weekend, so Kieran McKenna may be left to shake things up from the team that lost at Deepdale. Jens Cajuste could come into the starting XI along with Ashley Young to provide a bit more steel, while I’d also expect new arrival Kasey McAteer to be handed a start after his £12m move from Leicester. 

Chuba Akpom may replace Sammie Szmodics in the starting XI as the Tractor Boys search for that attacking spark. 

Football Odds

Derby County lost 2-1 to Burnley in the Carabao Cup, but John Eustace made several changes for that one and is likely to revert back to his ‘first-choice XI’ here. Carlton Morris should lead the line after his impressive goalscoring start at Pride Park, with captain Ebou Adams and Andreas Weimann likely to support him. 

Scotland full-back Max Johnston is a recent arrival and could make his debut while we can also expect Lewis Travis to come straight into the midfield after signing from Blackburn Rovers. 

Ipswich vs Derby Odds

Ipswich are priced up at 4/7 to win this home game, which gives them a 64% chance of winning according to the probability index. Derby are the major outsiders at 11/2, a draw is 11/4 which would continue Ipswich’s run without a win. 

Over 2.5 goals is 11/10 having failed to come in during any Ipswich game so far, while BTTS is the same price. Szmodics and Akpom are both 9/2 to open the scoring at Portman Road on Saturday.

Ipswich to win to nil @ 13/10

Although I’ve not been completely convinced by Ipswich this term, and some of their signings have been slightly too expensive, I do think that they will have enough to edge past Derby on Saturday. This is a squad with plenty of quality and it should click at some point, looking at the talent they possess. It's also not been that bad so far. 

They created an xG of 1.39 in the defeat to Preston, 1.64 in the 1-1 with Southampton and 1.26 against Birmingham City. They’ve won the xG battle in every league game so far so statistically can count themselves unlucky to not pick up more points. There will be a level of frustration around the place, but McKenna is a good manager and should get them on track - especially when the uncertainty of the transfer window finally closes.

Derby haven’t been good so far this term, picking up just one point, and although the addition of Travis is a big plus, I think this away test will prove to be slightly too tough for them. 

George Hirst to score first @ 5/1 

I don’t love any of the other potential first goalscorers for Ipswich, which in turn makes penalty-taker George Hirst a good price in my eyes. With Akpom and Szmodics searching for goals and neither guaranteed a start, Jack Clarke out of form and McAteer hoping for a place out wide, and with key figures such as Nathan Broadhead now departed - it does feel as though it will take McKenna a bit of time to work out his preferred attacking quartet. 

However, with no other options, it feels like Hirst will lead the line for the foreseeable future. He’s got a brilliant work ethic, and I think he will have a relatively good season in front of goal - starting by adding to his tally on Saturday afternoon.

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