Inter Milan vs Lazio Prediction: Cagey Coppa Italia tie awaits at San Siro

Inter Milan take on Lazio in the Coppa Italia quarter-finals on Tuesday (20:00, Premier Sports 1) with the last-eight contest taking place at I Nerazzurri's San Siro. The hosts beat Udinese 2-0 to reach this stage while the visitors were also victors against a Serie A side in the last 16 but they had the tougher task of facing Napoli, who they beat 3-1.

Below are my Inter Milan vs Lazio predictions, supported by all the latest team news and match odds, ahead of this midweek cup clash in Italy.

Team News

Yann Sommer (thumb), Valentin Carboni (knee), Carlos Augusto (calf) and Marcus Thuram (ankle) missed Inter's 1-0 win over Genoa in Serie A on Saturday and the quartet will be unavailable for selection again on Tuesday.

Joaquin Correa started in the weekend win but suffered a knee sprain and came off at half-time so he's a doubt for the visit of Lazio.

Josep Martinez made his Nerazzurri debut in the last round against Udinese. After keeping a clean sheet on his league bow for the club, the Spanish shot-stopper goes in search of a third consecutive shutout for the side he joined last summer.

Yann Bisseck, Stefan de Vrij and Matteo Darmian are all in with a shout of starting in defence on Tuesday, while Roma loanee Nicola Zalewski could begin the game at wing-back against his parent club's fiercest rivals.

Hakan Calhanoglu and Piotr Zielinksi are in contention to start in midfield after coming on as second-half substitutes at the weekend, while Mehdi Taremi and Marko Arnautovic are pushing for starts.

Simone Inzaghi could make several changes to his line-up with a top-of-the-table clash against Napoli to come on Saturday but a few of his first-team stars, such as Federico Dimarco and skipper Lautaro Martinez, may keep their starting spots.

Football Odds

Matias Vecino, Elseid Hysaj (thigh), Lucas Pellegrini (neck), Fisayo Dele-Bashiru and Taty Castellanos (both unspecified) are all injured for Lazio, whose goalkeeping situation took a twist on the weekend.

Ivan Provedel has been the club's undisputed number one for the last three seasons but the Italian was dropped to the bench for Saturday's goalless draw at Venezia. Greek goalie Christos Mandas was between the sticks for their Coppa Italia victory over Napoli in the last round, so it remains to be seen whether head coach Marco Baroni has swapped them around now.

Tijjani Noslin has scored just twice in 21 Serie A appearances since joining Lazio from Verona last summer but he hit a hat-trick in the last 16 of the cup and should keep his starting spot on Tuesday.

Nicolo Rovella is expected to start in midfield after a suspension ruled him out of his side's stalemate in Venice.

Manuel Lazzari, Samuel Gigot, Reda Belahyane and Pedro will all be hoping for opportunities to impress in Milan.

Inter Milan vs Lazio Odds

Inter have wobbled a bit of late, losing two of their last four matches, but both defeats came away from home, and at San Siro, they have only lost to bitter rivals and fellow ground tenants Milan this season. Inzaghi's side are 8/11 to get the job done in regulation time on Tuesday, implying a win probability of 57.9%, while Lazio are 16/5, or a 23.8% chance, to dispose of the reigning league champions in 90 minutes.

The draw, which would send the tie straight to a penalty shootout, is priced at 5/2, and both teams to score at 4/5.

Inter are 2/5 to win the tie by any means with Lazio 7/4 in the same market.

Total Goals - Under 2.5 @ 5/6

Six goals were scored - all by Inter - in the only other meeting between these sides this season as I Nerazzurri ran riot in Rome last December. The previous head-to-head finished 1-1 in May and another tight contest appeared to be playing out but Calhanoglu's successful spot-kick in the 41st minute opened the floodgates for the visitors, who scored their second on the stroke of half-time through Dimarco.

Nicolo Barella, Denzel Dumfries, Carlos and Thuram all struck in the second half to cap a miserable night for Lazio, who will be desperate to avoid a similar scoreline in Milan.

That humbling at home did feel like something of an outlier for Lazio who have only lost three of their following 12 games and only one of those defeats - a 2-0 reversal in the Rome derby - was by a margin greater than one.

Lazio drew 0-0 at the weekend and three of their five away games this calendar year have finished with two or fewer goals.

Inter, meanwhile, have seen their last two matches end in a 1-0 scoreline - one in their favour - and six of their 13 contests in 2025 so far have gone under 2.5 total goals.

There were only two goals struck between the two teams the last time they met at San Siro and with changes expected, particularly in the hosts' starting XI, there may be a lack of fluency in this one, particularly in the early stages of a quarter-final tie. One or two goals sounds about right to me and therefore I'm taking under 2.5 total goals at just under EVS here.

Booking Points Handicap -10 - Lazio -10 @ 9/5

Lazio and Inter sit at opposite ends of the disciplinary table in Serie A this season with the former collecting more yellow cards (65) than any other side and only Napoli (33) and Bologna (35) picking up fewer than the latter. I Biancocelesti have also received five reds while I Nerazzurri are yet to see one of their players dismissed.

Inter were shown four yellows to Lazio's two in December's league fixture but I'm expecting things to be very different at San Siro where Inzaghi's men are so dominant.

Tuesday's hosts have avoided a booking in three of their five home games this calendar year and it's likely to be their visitors that apply more aggression in this tie.

I'm backing Lazio to overcome a -10 booking points handicap, which would land if, for example, they were shown three yellows (30 booking points) to Inter's one (10).

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