Inter Milan vs Bologna Prediction: Foul merchant Dumfries could be caught out by Rossoblu duo

Inter Milan suffered late heartbreak in Riyadh last week as they let a two-goal lead slip against bitter rivals AC Milan to lose 3-2 in the Supercoppa Italiana final, but Simone Inzaghi's side responded in the right way in Serie A on Sunday as they edged out Venezia 1-0 in Venice. Next up for I Nerazzurri is a Wednesday night (19:45) clash at San Siro against Bologna who are winless in their last two games, conceding an equaliser in the eighth minute of added time on Sunday against Roma (2-2).

Below is my Inter Milan vs Bologna prediction, complete with all the latest team news and match odds.

Team News

Henrikh Mkhitaryan and Hakan Calhanoglu both missed the weekend win in Venice and are doubts for the midweek game against Bologna.

Joaquin Correa, Yann Bisseck and Francesco Acerbi were also sidelined on Sunday and all three are expected to be absent again on Wednesday.

Marcus Thuram, Federico Dimarco and Benjamin Pavard were second-half substitutes against Venezia and the trio are in contention to start at San Siro.

Football Odds

Former Milan midfielder Tommaso Pobega is back from a one-match ban for Bologna but I Rossoblu are now without suspended Colombian defender Jhon Lucumi who picked up his fifth yellow card of the league campaign on Sunday.

On-loan centre-back Nicolo Casale could replace Lucimi in the starting XI while Riccardo Orsolini, who has played a part in three goals in his last four league games against Inter but hasn't started since a 4-0 Coppa Italia victory over Monza on December 3, will be eyeing a return to Vincenzo Italiano's starting XI.

Nicolo Cambiaghi, Oussama El Azzouzi and Michel Aebischer remain sidelined for the visitors.

Inter Milan vs Bologna Odds

Inter have won their last five Serie A matches and have had 10 victories in their last 12 in the competition so their odds of 2/5, which imply a win probability of 71.4%, is of little surprise. Bologna, who haven't beaten Inter at San Siro since July 2020 when there were no supporters in the Guiseppe Meazza due to COVID protocols, are 6/1, or a 14.3% chance, to triumph for the first time since December 21.

The draw, which landed in the corresponding fixture last season (2-2), is priced at 100/30, while both teams to score, a winner in five of Inter's last seven Serie A home games, is available at 10/11.

Player to Receive a Card - Denzel Dumfries (INT) @ 100/30

Inter wing-back Denzel Dumfries has started his side's last five games and looks set to make it six on Wednesday when Bologna pitch up at San Siro.

The Netherlands international is a player who is always in the thick of the action as evidenced by his two-fouls-per-game average in Serie A this season which is up from 0.8 in 2023/24. He was only booked twice in the Italian top flight last season but has already been shown three yellows in the division this term, despite just nine of his 15 appearances coming as a starter.

Dumfries hasn't actually been cautioned in Serie A since Inter's 1-1 draw against Napoli on November 10 but he was carded in their Milan derby defeat in the Supercoppa Italiana on January 6 and could be a busy boy on Wednesday up against a couple of players that know how to win free-kicks and penalties.

It remains to be seen if Dan Ndoye starts at San Siro given he recently returned from an injury and was withdrawn in the 68th minute against Roma on Sunday, but whether he starts or comes off the bench, you can be pretty sure he'll attract attention from the opposition and be fouled once or twice. The 24-year-old has been fouled 3.1 times per game on average in Serie A this season playing mainly from the left, where he would come head-to-head with Dumfries, or more recently on the right. Ndoye was only brought on in the 74th minute at San Siro last March but was fouled once by Dumfries.

On the left more recently, however, has been 21-year-old Argentine Benjamin Dominguez who has been fouled 2.1 times per game, on average, in Serie A, and prior to being fouled once by Roma on Sunday - half the amount of Ndoye - he was hauled down seven times by Hellas Verona players in his side's 3-2 defeat on December 30.

Clearly, both Dominguez and Ndoye are tricky players to contain and whoever plays on the left of Bologna's attack could give Dumfries some difficult moments on Wednesday, so 100/30 looks a good price to back a card for the 28-year-old who has two yellows in six career appearances against I Rossoblu.

Bet Builder - Federico Dimarco (INT) 1+ Shots on Target, Tommaso Pobega (BOL) 1+ Shots on Target @ 3/1

Dimarco was only an 83rd-minute substitute on Sunday but is expected to return to Inter's starting XI in midweek having featured from the off in their previous four games.

The 27-year-old left wing-back is enjoying another stellar season in Serie A, scoring three goals and assisting the same number in 18 appearances as he looks to better his 2023/24 tally of five goals and six assists.

Dimarco is averaging 1.9 shots per game in the Italian top flight and he's been pretty accurate with his efforts, too, averaging 0.7 shots on target per game. He's hit the target in seven of his last eight Serie A starts and has scored twice in that period, while in two games against Bologna last season, one in the league and the other in the Coppa Italia, he forced a save both times.

For Bologna, I'm backing 25-year-old midfielder Pobega, also in-form in front of goal, to record at least one shot on target at San Siro. Pobega has scored twice in eight Serie A appearances (seven starts) this season and both of those goals came last month, the first in a 2-2 draw at Juventus on December 7 and the second in a 2-0 victory at Torino two weeks later.

The ex-Milan man was sent off on his most recent outing, a 3-2 defeat to Verona on December 30, but he still managed to force two saves in that match and has had at least one shot on target in his last four games, managing two in each of his final two 2024 contests to bring his shot-on-target-per-game average up to 0.8 for the season.

Against Inter, bitter rivals of his former club, I think Pobega will be keen to impress, and thus he could be shooting from all angles.

Inter have conceded a shot to a central midfielder in each of their last four games with all three of Venezia's starting centre-mids on Sunday mustering one attempt and one of them, Issa Doumbia, forced a save from Yann Sommer, and another, Gianluca Busio, hit the post.

Milan's Tijjani Reijnders registered a shot on target in the previous match in Riyadh and Atalanta defender Giorgio Scalvini, operating further forward against I Nerazzurri, also had an effort saved in the same city four days before, so that's three matches in a row where Inter have conceded a shot on target to a central midfielder.

Offers

Acca Flex: Place a pre-match 5+ leg Football accumulator and get a CASH bonus up to 100% if all of your selections win or your money back as CASH if one leg lets you down.

You can read all our latest Football Betting Tips at our dedicated Betfred Insights content hub.