Inter vs Lazio Prediction: Don’t expect plenty of goals in this one

 | January 18 | 

5 mins read

Daniele Fisichella Serie A Tips

The Italian Supercoppa continues on Friday as Inter take on Lazio in the second semi-final from Saudi Arabia.

The match will be broadcast in the UK on Viaplay Xtra and as always, our Italian Football expert Daniele Fisichella is here with his thoughts ahead of the big game...

Inter vs Lazio Betting Tips:

  • Back Under 2.5 Goals @ 5/6
  • Back Inter to Win & Under 3.5 Goals @ 6/5

The second Supercoppa semi-final sees last year’s Coppa Italia champions, and current Serie A leaders, Inter taking on Lazio, who surprisingly finished runners-up behind Napoli last season.

Does this trophy, in his new four-teams format and with a €8 milion prize for the winner, represent an opportunity or is it an inconvenience for two of the most in form teams in Italy’s top flights who are still involved in Champions League football?

Simone Inzaghi’s men, who have won the Supercoppa for two years in a row, are locked in a tight title race with Juventus, but the Bianconeri could potentially leapfrog Inter whose Serie A game against Atalanta was re-scheduled to allow them to travel to Saudi Arabia.

With no winter break this year and such a congested fixtures schedule, having to potentially play two matches in just three days could take its toll on Inter who’ll resume the league away at Fiorentina before hosting Juve in the Scudetto decider on 4 February.

Given his record in the competition (four victories), Inzaghi won’t be snobbish about the Supercoppa and will be motivated to win it after Inter’s early elimination in Coppa Italia.

Maurizio Sarri has been very critical about the format of the competition and the feeling is that he’d rather continue to play in Serie A, where Lazio have started climbing up the table.

The Biancocelesti’s form has improved since they stopped playing in Europe and incidentally their last defeat came at the hands of Inter (2-0 at the Olimpico) a month ago.

Since then, they’ve won all five games, including a hard fought 1-0 success against Roma in Coppa Italia.

Lazio are still far away from the level they’ve shown last season, they’ve only got Serie A’s 10th best attack (newly promoted Frosinone have scored one goal more than them) and often concede chances to their opponents.

But they’ve become much more pugnacious and able to hold their nerves in tight situations.

Sarri seem to have find the right balance in midfield with the addition of Rovella, whereas Zaccagni and Felipe Anderson have shown signs of improvement.

In Serie A Inter have scored more than twice (49 against 24) Lazio’s goals, but, as it often happens between top teams in Italy, this might be a low scoring affair.

Team News:

Inter will play with their usual 3-5-2 formation, with Lautaro Martinez and Marcus Thuram (both scored already this season against Lazio) up front.

Inzaghi won’t change his midfield trio made of Barella, Calhanoglu and Mkhitaryan.

Denzel Dumfries is fully recovered from his injury and will play at right wing-back, with Dimarco on the opposite flank. In defence, former Lazio defender Acerbi will replace De Vrij with Pavard and Bastoni either side of him.

Lazio are only missing Castellanos (injured) and will welcome back captain Ciro Immobile back to the starting eleven. Isaksen will drop to the bench and Manuel Lazzarri will replace Pellegrini who started last Saturday against Lecce.

Patric picked up a knock during that match and is a doubt, so the centre-back pairing should be formed by Romagnoli and Casale. Guendouzi, Rovella and Luis Alberto are confirmed in midfield.

Inter vs Lazio Odds:

Serie A leaders Inter are favourite (3/5) to advance to the final on Monday as they’ve won the last two games played against Lazio.

The odds for a Biancocelesti win within 90 minutes are extremely high (4/1), in fact Maurizio Sarri’s men have already lost nine games in all competitions this season whereas Inter have only been defeated twice (by Sassuolo and Bologna).

Like for every other knockout match, the draw pays also well (13/5).

Considering the new format of the Supercoppa, and the fact that both teams are in excellent form, it’s hard to chose between Over and Under 2.5 Goals.

Inter have kept 12 clean sheets in Serie A (but none in their last three games), whereas Lazio haven’t conceded in six of their last 11 matches in all competitions. No wonder why both Over and Under are priced exactly the same, 5/6.

Under 2.5 Goals @ 5/6

Maurizio Sarri will probably leave, at least initially, the initiative to Inter who themselves will be weary of the threat Lazio can pose on the counter. The Neroazzurri will have a numerical advantage in midfield and especially Luis Alberto will have to work hard to avoid getting overrun.

But this will probably be a game dominated by caution and decided by a few episodes.

A draw after 90 minutes will send teams straight to penalties, so if it’s still 0-0 after an hour, I can’t expect any of these to sides try to force it too much.

Match result: Inter and Under 3.5 Goals @ 6/5

However, given their dominance in Serie A and their stronger experience in cup competitions (they’re reached three finals in the last two seasons), Inter are rightly the favourite to win this tie.

After a couple of stuttering performances they came out in style in their 5-1 win in Monza and so far they’ve been almost unstoppable domestically when they’ve been at full strength.

Lazio have been capable of a couple of dogged performances this season, especially in Champions League, but against Italy’s best attack some of their defensive frailties can’t be overlooked.

You can check out all of Daniele's Serie A Betting Tips here each week along with those of our other Italian Football writers...

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