Independiente vs Liverpool Prediction: Hosts to do their part

Independiente del Valle welcome Liverpool to Estadio Banco Guayaquil on Thursday (23:00) for matchday six of the Copa Libertadores group stage, in which both teams need a victory if they wish to have any chance of progressing to the knockout stage.

This outcome also depends on San Lorenzo losing to Palmeiras, but it looks likely to be too much of a stretch for Liverpool, whose goal difference of -7 leaves them with a severe disadvantage heading into this clash. Read on for my Independiente vs Liverpool prediction.

Independiente vs Liverpool Odds

Independiente are the 2/9 favourites to win this match, giving them an implied probability of 81.8%. Liverpool are valued at 10/1, which gives them a 9.1% chance of victory. The draw can be backed at 4/1 (20%).

Both teams to score is on offer at 6/5 and over 2.5 goals is 8/13.

Team News

Youri Ochoa is out for Independiente with a hamstring tear, and he is joined in the treatment room by Junior Sornoza, Jose Kilnger and Joan Lopez. Bryan Garcia remains suspended over a match-fixing scandal from his time in Brazil.

Liverpool are going to be without the services of Matias de los Santos following the straight red card he received in the away defeat to San Lorenzo last time out. Facundo Perdomo is out injured, recovering from a torn ligament.

Independiente to win 1-0 @ 11/2

This crunch clash will apply plenty of pressure on both sides seeing as they both need to win to have any chance of progressing to the next stage with Palmeiras, and so I am expecting a rather cagey affair.

Both teams have only experienced one win in the group stage thus far, and they both came in their home fixtures with San Lorenzo. When the pair met on matchday one, they played out a 1-1 draw, in which Liverpool had to play out the final nine minutes down to 10 men, having just equalised moments before.

I can see a lot of nerves being on show here and it will be a test of character for both sets of players as much as their abilities. The hosts have looked better at home and they did put up a good fight when they were beaten 3-2 by Palmeiras here. This makes me believe they might just have enough to get the win they need to do their part, while hoping San Lorenzo are beaten comfortably by Palmeiras.

Liverpool's desperation for a victory will make this a tight affair, I think, and that is why I have gone for Independiente to edge this meeting 1-0. I think the home advantage will play its part, as will the fans, which should be enough to see the hosts over the line.

Under 2.5 goals @ 6/5

In case that fails, my other selection is for their to be under 2.5 goals in this match. Similar to my previous selection, I am expecting a close contest between these two teams, who simply have to give everything they've got here as it is their last chance.

There have been under 2.5 goals in all of Independiente del Valle's Copa Libertadores clashes except their meetings with Palmeiras this term, and I fancy this trend to continue on Thursday.

It has also landed in two of Liverpool's fixtures in this competition so far, including the reverse meeting with Independiente on matchday one. They were closely matched then, and I think they will be on this occasion.

Acca Flex: Place a pre-match 5+ leg Football accumulator and get a CASH bonus up to 50% if all of your selections win or your money back as CASH if one leg lets you down.

You can read all our latest Football Betting Tips at our dedicated Betfred Insights content hub.