Hungary vs Turkey Prediction: Hosts can turn tie around

Hungary have work to do ahead of their second leg Nations League play-off tie with Turkey, having gone down 3-1 in Istanbul on Thursday night. Participation in League A of the Nations League is on the line, and the teams will learn their fate when they meet for the second time in a few days, this time at the Puskas Arena in Budapest (17:00). 

Below you can find my Hungary vs Turkey predictions as well look forward to this key clash. 

Team News

Turkey manager Vincenzo Montella is unlikely to want to tinker with his side too much after an impressive display on Thursday, but he will be forced into two changes. Burak Yilmaz went off injured and although his replacement on the night was Deniz Gul, the Italian manager may choose to select Irfan Kahveci in his place after he scored the third goal off the bench. 

The other injury issue came for right-back Kaan Ayhan as he went off before the half hour mark. That should be a direct swap, with Mert Mulder coming off the bench and doing a decent job in that position on Thursday. 

It depends how many changes Montella wants to make after a win, but Arda Guler and Merih Demiral are both back available after serving their one-match suspensions. However, right winger Oguz Aydin bagged two assists and had a fantastic game in the first leg, so it will be interesting to see where Guler fits into this team. Demiral could come straight back into the back four while captain Hakan Calhanoglu and Orkan Kocku will continue to patrol the midfield. 

Marco Rossi, another Italian manager, may be more tempted to rotate with his side needing to find at least two goals to progress. Attacking midfielder Zsolt Nagy went off injured with 10 minutes to go and could lose his place in the starting XI to Levante Szabo, while Baranabas Varga and Liverpool’s Dominik Szoboszlai should retain their places in the final third. 

Andras Schafer, the goalscorer on Thursday, was also forced off at half-time and Mihaly Kata should replace him having done so off the bench in Turkey. Daniel Gazdag and Attila Osvath are also alternative options further back as Rossi looks for a different outcome on Sunday. 

Hungary vs Turkey Odds

Hungary are priced at 6/4 to win this game, giving them an implied win probability of 40% for this contest. Meanwhile Turkey can be backed at 8/5 to record another victory over their hosts, with a draw up at 23/10. 

Over 2.5 goals is available to back at 6/5 having come in during the first leg, while the same can be said for BTTS at 5/6. 

BTTS @ 5/6

I expected to see far shorter odds than 5/6 for both teams to score in this second leg, so let’s jump on board with this as our first selection. I like it for a lot of reasons, the first one being the game state. This isn’t a regular game of football where both teams have something to hold onto from the first whistle. 

Hungary simply have to come out all guns blazing from minute one, as they look to score the two goals needed to level the tie on aggregate. As a result, they cannot play defensive football, or time waste at any point. Both teams scored in the first leg when we could have expected a tense affair but in Budapest, I’m expecting the home team to go for it, and Turkey to play on the counter. 

There’s a decent amount of attacking quality on both teams and I’d fancy Szoboszlai to come up with a goal at some point for his nation. However, this may actually suit Turkey as they have plenty of pace and could strike on the break. Both teams have scored in three of the last four Turkey internationals, while Hungary sit at three out of their last five. I can see this coming in again. 

Hungary to win the tie @ 6/1

I fancy Hungary to turn things around and think the price of 6/1 on them to do so is more than generous. Most punters will look at that first leg scoreline at a surface level and see that Turkey bagged a convincing home win, but when we delve into the statistics that wasn’t actually the case. 

Hungary actually created a higher xG (0.73 v 1.31), had more shots (10 v 15), and more shots on target (three v six). The eagle-eyed amongst you will notice that that means Turkey scored with every single shot on target they had in a ruthless display of attacking efficiency. But on home soil, I think Hungary can do this. 

If they produce the same display statistically, they won’t be too far off, they just need a little more confidence in front of goal. A two-goal win in normal time, followed by a win over extra-time or penalties, will suit us just fine. 

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