Hull vs Derby Prediction: All on the line in relegation six-pointer

With the automatic promotion spots now settled, attention in the Championship has turned to what is turning out to be one of the most entertaining relegation battles we’ve ever seen. Derby County, as well as trying to stay up themselves, will have a big say in who remains in the league as they still have to play rivals Hull City and Stoke City in their final two matches. 

First up, they travel to the MKM Stadium looking to stay above the dotted line. Below you can find my Hull vs Derby predictions. 

Football Odds

Team News

After a rare home win against Preston North End last time out, Ruben Selles may be tempted to name an unchanged team for this one. Kyle Joseph led the line but it was former Leeds United forward Joe Gelhardt who converted two penalties, so expect those two to start again. Abu Kamara and Nordin Amrabat provided the width while Steven Alzate continues to shine in the midfield.

His midfield partner was Regan Slater against Preston, but Gustavo Puerta is pushing to win his spot in the team back and that could be a change that Selles makes. Dogukan Sinik, Liam Millar and Mohamed Belloumi remain sidelined. 

Derby’s 3-5-2 continues to churn out results and they impressively beat West Brom 3-1 at the Hawthorns on Easter Monday. Marcus Harness and Jerry Yates will continue their partnership up top while Liam Thompson, Harrison Armstrong and Ebou Adams put in a dominant display in midfield. 

At 18, Armstrong in particular has been a real shining light for the Rams, and he is certainly one to watch. At wing-back Kane Wilson and Craig Forsyth may continue, with the back three and goalkeeper remaining unchanged. Nathaniel Mendez-Laing scored off the bench but he is unlikely to displace either of the front two. 

Hull vs Derby Odds 

Hull are priced at 7/5 to win this home game, while Derby are up at 11/5. That gives the home side an implied win probability of 42%, but they’ve only won five games at the MKM all season. A draw can be backed at 2/1 if these two relegation rivals can’t be separated. 

Hull have only seen over 2.5 goals in 32% of their league matches and that is therefore priced at 13/8, while BTTS is 6/5. If you fancy a first goalscorer, Yates leads that market at 13/2.

Derby to win @ 11/5

Hull may have got a win last time out at home, but that came against a Preston side that is dropping like a stone and wildly out of form. They’ve still got the worst home record in the division having amassed just 23 points from 22 matches, and it is that form that has them bang in trouble as we enter the penultimate gameweek. They are keeping games tight in recent weeks but I am concerned for the Tigers, given they face a tough trip to Portsmouth on the final day. 

Meanwhile Derby have found another gear under John Eustace and although they went four games without a win, the success over the Baggies ended that run in style. With Harness and Yates they have a decent duo up top, and I just think they will be able to steal a vital three points from Hull, and potentially drag the Tigers into the bottom three. With Luton Town kicking off at 12:30, the pressure on these two will be massive.

I think that the Rams will be able to handle it better than their nervy hosts. 

Scorecast - Yates to score first, Derby to win 1-0 @ 33/1

If you’ve followed my tips for a while, you know I like to pick out a scorecast for these types of games. Now, although BTTS has come in during seven of Hull’s last nine home matches, I just can’t see this being a free-flowing affair. There is too much on the line and so I think we will certainly see under 2.5 goals.

Given I’m backing the Rams to come out on top, I think a 1-0 scoreline is the most likely scenario on Saturday afternoon as they both try and grind out a vital three points. I’ll back Derby to win by that scoreline, and their frontman Yates to bag the only goal of the game. He scored at the Hawthorns on Monday to make it three goals in his last five Championship appearances, and will fancy his chances against a Hull outfit under pressure. 

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