Hoffenheim vs Leipzig Prediction: Die Roten Bullen could trample on hosts’ European dreams

RB Leipzig took a monumental step in their pursuit of Champions League football next season with a 4-1 win over Bundesliga top-four rivals Borussia Dortmund last Saturday, but next up is a trip to TSG Hoffenheim, who are battling to save their own European dream.

Ahead of Friday's clash at the PreZero Arena in Sinsheim (19:30, Sky Sports App), I have outlined my Hoffenheim vs Leipzig prediction and noted all the latest team news and match odds, which you can read below.

A 3-2 defeat at VFL Bochum last time out, when they went 3-0 down before replying twice through Andrej Kramaric, has left Hoffenheim in ninth, six points behind Eintracht Frankfurt, who would qualify for the Europa Conference League as things stand.

However, with Germany increasingly likely to earn an extra Champions League place, the Europa Conference League berth could drop down to seventh where Freiburg currently reside, a point ahead of Augsburg and Hoffenheim.

With three rounds remaining, there is still plenty for Hoffenheim to play for.

If the Bundesliga does indeed receive a fifth Champions League berth, then Leipzig are already assured of a place in next season's competition. However, they will want to finish in the top four and ensure they do not need to rely on other results.

A win on Friday and a draw or defeat for Dortmund against Augsburg the following day would wrap up their top-four spot, while they could also end the weekend in third if Stuttgart fail to beat Bayern.

Team News

Umut Tohumci picked up a fifth yellow card of the campaign last week and will miss the visit of Leipzig on Friday, while the hosts are also without Mergim Berisha and Stanley Nsoki due to injury.

Dennis Geiger is considered touch-and-go after missing the last two games with an adductor problem, and illness could rule out Bambase Conte once again.

Leipzig are are likely to be without defender Christopher Lenz again due to a calf issue, and Mohamed Simakan is a doubt after being substituted just six minutes after scoring against Dortmund last weekend.

Match Odds

Hoffenheim are 5/1 to win a third-straight match at home, giving them an implied win probability of 16.7%, while Leipzig can be backed at 4/9, or a 69.2% chance.

The draw is available at 4/1, both teams to score at 4/11, and Lois Openda - who has scored in his last four appearances - is 3/1 to open the scoring.

Leipzig to win & over 3.5 goals @ 6/5

Goals are pretty much guaranteed in Hoffenheim games, with 19 of their 31 Bundesliga matches ending in over 3.5 goals, more than any other club. Their last four have all had that as a minimum, including last week's 3-2 defeat to Bochum.

Leipzig aren't too far behind in the over 3.5 table, with 15 of their league matches seeing at least four goals scored, and that was how many were struck in the reverse fixture at the Red Bull Arena in December as Die Roten Bullen triumphed 3-1.

I expect more goals between these sides on Friday, with both likely to get on the scoresheet.

Ultimately, I think Leipzig's firepower will be too much for Hoffenheim.

Andrej Kramaric anytime scorer @ 21/10

The Croatia international sent a stark reminder of his qualities with a second-half brace against Bochum last week, and he will be looking to improve on his 11-goal tally in the Bundesliga before the season is out.

Kramaric needs a couple to catch up with teammate Maximilian Beier, who is currently Hoffenheim's leading scorer in the Bundesliga this term with 13 goals, but has just one in his last seven appearances.

Remarkably, Leipzig have kept just two clean sheets in 15 league away outings this season, the latest of which came back in September, and the likes of Bayern (two), Augsburg (two) and Stuttgart (five) have struck multiple goals on their own ground against them in 2024.

Hoffenheim have only failed to score in two Bundesliga home games, and if they get on the scoresheet at least once on Friday, Kramaric appears the most likely man on there from their perspective.

Check out the rest of our Football Betting Tips here.