Hellas Verona vs AC Milan Prediction: Goals on the cards with 9/2 tip

Under-pressure AC Milan coach Paulo Fonseca desperately needs a result on Friday when his side travel to Hellas Verona’s Stadio Bentegodi in Serie A (20:45 local, 19:45 GMT).

The Rossoneri have fallen to eighth off the back of winning just one of their last five league games, and a number of out-of-work managers have been linked with Fonseca’s role. Here are my Hellas Verona vs AC Milan predictions, along with full preview and odds.

Team News

Verona have been hit this week by the confirmation that midfielder Abdou Harroui suffered ACL damage in the 3-2 win at Parma last weekend and will miss the rest of the season as a result.

The 26-year-old had only recently returned from a minor ligament issue which had kept him out for six matches, and his absence comes as a massive blow following his two assists in the success at the Ennio Tardini.

Martin Frese and Juan Cruz remain sidelined for the Gialloblu, with the former’s groin injury and Cruz’s longstanding thigh problem keeping both out for the foreseeable future.

Milan are without a number of players heading to the Bentegodi. Alessandro Florenzi’s ACL injury will keep him out until the spring, while there are five more stars set to miss the Christmas fixtures.

Yunus Musah and Luka Jovic are out with muscle issues, Ruben Loftus-Cheek has a hamstring complaint, Christian Pulisic’s calf injury has a calf problem and Ismael Bennacer is missing due to ligament trouble.

Noah Okafor has played just 14 minutes of football since suffering from a bug at the end of November but is again expected to be on the bench.

Hellas Verona vs AC Milan Odds

Verona might have won their last fixture but they are a fairly long 9/2 bet for the three points on Friday. That implies an 18.2% probability of a home-town success.

Milan are the big 4/7 favourites, yet their only league success away from the San Siro in six attempts came at nearby Monza in early November.

The draw is on offer at a healthy 16/5, which suggests a 23.8% chance, with three of Milan’s last five matches having seen the spoils shared. Verona, on the other hand, have not been involved in a tied game all season.

Draw @ 16/5

First up, Verona have to draw at some point. Having won five and lost 11 of their 16 Serie A matches to date, the likelihood has to be that their first draw is getting closer.

Milan have been held regularly of late, and while Verona concede a lot of goals they have been good in front of the target themselves. So I can see a high-scoring draw in this one, with the Rossoneri just not demonstrating the sort of form which convinces me they’ll take all three points.

At 16/5, I think the Betfred oddsmakers have been swayed by the Scaligeri’s lack of ties rather than the stumbling nature of Milan’s results.

Football Odds

Both teams to score 2 or more goals @ 9/2

This won’t be a low-scoring game. Milan have been involved in two 2-2 draws and a 3-3 classic against Cagliari to this point, while Verona’s 16 games have totalled 60 goals for and against – the highest such tally of any Serie A club.

Four of Hellas’ matches have also seen both score at least twice (all four of them finishing 3-2, for what it’s worth). The 9/2 odds, I think, understate the probability of this one at 18.2%.

I can well see this clash being a real shootout, and if the draw doesn’t come in it will be because one side outguns the other by the odd goal in a goalfest.

That price is far bigger than the probability, so I’m happy to take on the traders.

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