Gremio vs Vasco da Gama Prediction: More Porto Alegre pain for Vasco

Two out-of-form sides in Brazil’s Serie A meet in Porto Alegre on Thursday (00:30 GMT), with Gremio playing host to Vasco da Gama at Arena do Gremio.

Below are my Gremio vs Vasco da Gama predictions, combined with all the latest team news and match odds.

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Team News

Fabian Balbuena, Cristian Olivera (both ankle), Mathias Villasanti, Rodrigo Ely (both knee), Joao Pedro (muscle), Martin Braithwaite (Achilles), Marcos Rocha (hamstring) and Willian (leg) all look set to miss out for Gremio due to injury.

Edenilson, who started Gremio’s 2-2 draw at Fortaleza on November 9, is suspended due to an accumulation of yellow cards, but Cristian Pavon, who missed that stalemate at Castelao for the same reason, is back from a ban of his own.

Football Odds

Vasco right-back Paulo Henrique, who was called up for national team selection this month by Brazil, is suspended for Wednesday’s game anyway, having been sent off in the 3-1 home defeat to Juventude on November 8.

Jair (knee), Adson (leg) and Benjamin Garre (groin) could all miss out for the visitors, too.

Gremio vs Vasco da Gama Odds

Gremio have utterly dominated Vasco in Porto Alegre over the last 13 years. Since 2012, the two sides have met 12 times (11 in Serie A, once in Serie B) at Gremio’s home stadium, with the hosts winning every time.

The Imortal Tricolors are 5/4 to record a 13th consecutive home victory over Vasco, implying a 44.4% probability of success, while Gigante da Colina are 21/10, or a 32.3% chance, to claim a first away win at Gremio since May 2006.

The two sides played out a 1-1 draw at Vasco’s Sao Januario in Rio de Janeiro on July 19, and a second head-to-head draw of the season can be backed at 11/5, with a repeat of that scoreline priced at 11/2.

Player to Receive a Card - Lucas Piton (VAS) @ 3/1

Vasco left-back Lucas Piton was booked six times in 32 Serie A appearances last season, with a third of his cautions coming against Gremio.

The Brazilian didn’t commit a foul in Vasco’s 2-1 home victory over Gremio in April 2024, but he was carded for time-wasting in the dying embers.

Just over three months later, in a 1-0 defeat at Arena do Gremio, he was booked for a 35th-minute foul on the home side’s right winger, Pavon.

Today's Football Fixtures

The 25-year-old avoided a caution in July’s stalemate in Rio, but he conceded a couple of free-kicks at Sao Januario, with the first of his offences committed against Gremio’s tricky teenage winger, Alysson, who is averaging 2.3 fouls won per game in Serie A this season.

Alysson was taken down twice in Gremio’s last game against Fortaleza, and in a recent home match, a 3-1 victory over Juventude on October 26, he was upended six times, with left-back Alan Ruschel, later booked, guilty of taking him down in the penalty area. Left-sided centre-back Marcos Paulo was sent off in that contest, with the first of his two yellow cards awarded to him for a foul on Alysson.

Lucas Piton has form against Gremio, and as someone averaging 1.5 fouls per game in this season’s Serie A, he looks like a prime candidate to go into the book on Wednesday.

Match Result & Total Goals Over/Under 3.5 - Gremio & Under 3.5 @ 9/5

Gremio may be two points below Vasco in the table, but the Imortal Tricolors have the all-important mental edge after winning the last 12 editions of this head-to-head in Porto Alegre.

Mano Menezes’ side have also performed strongly at home recently, winning three consecutive games at Arena do Gremio before losing 1-0 to title contenders Cruzeiro on November 5.

Vasco supporters may point toward their positive away record, with only five sides bettering their points tally of 17 away from Rio.

However, they were easily beaten 3-0 at Botafogo last time out on their travels, and that November 5 defeat was sandwiched between home losses to Sao Paulo (0-2) on November 2 and Juventude (1-3) on November 8.

Taking Gremio’s record at this ground, and Vasco’s three straight defeats, into account, I’m more than happy to back the hosts on Thursday, even if they are themselves winless in their last three games (D1, L2).

I’m also adding in under 3.5 goals as both sides have struggled to get on the scoresheet recently, each blanking in two of their last three matches (under 3.5 goals landed in the first two of those three for Gremio and Vasco).

The last seven head-to-heads have all featured three or fewer goals, too.