Gremio vs Estudiantes Prediction: Brazilians to grab top spot with victory

A 1-0 victory over Huachipato in Chile on Wednesday sealed Gremio's place in the knockout rounds of the 2024 Copa Libertadores, but the Brazilians need to beat Estudiantes in Porto Alegre on Saturday (KO, 23:00) to pip The Strongest to top spot in Group C.

Read below for my Gremio vs Estudiantes prediction ahead of this weekend's clash at Arena do Gremio.

Team News

Gremio are still without several first-team players including Cristian Pavon, Andre Henrique and Jhonata Robert due to injury, but Diego Costa made a goalscoring return from suspension in midweek and is in contention to make back-to-back starts.

Teenage forward Nathan Fernandes was a half-time substitute against Huachipato and may have been in contention to start on Saturday in place of the player he was brought on for - Everton Galdino - but an injury picked up in that game, which saw him taken off in the 68th minute, may deprive Fernandes of that chance.

Estudiantes last played on Tuesday, drawing 1-1 at home to Godoy Cruz in the Argentine Primera Division, where Javier Altamirano was missing through injury. The 24-year-old hasn't featured since March 14 and will be absent again this weekend.

Tiago Palacios received his third yellow card of the group stage in last week's 4-3 defeat to Huachipato and will serve a one-match suspension on Saturday.

Gremio vs Estudiantes Odds

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Gremio are 4/6 to get the victory they need to top the group, giving the hosts an implied win probability of 60%, while Estudiantes are 100/30, or a 23.1% chance, to finish their Libertadores campaign off with a win.

The draw is available at 13/5, both teams to score at 1/1, and over 2.5 goals at 6/5.

Gremio to win to nil @ 13/8

The Strongest - having played all six of their group games - are on 10 points, with Gremio a point behind the Bolivians, on nine. A draw would see Gremio draw level on points, with both on +2 goal difference.

However, The Strongest currently lead on goals scored with eight, meaning that Gremio would have to draw 2-2 to level it up, and it would be the Brazilians who would finish top after beating their Group C rivals 4-0 in Curitiba, and only losing 2-0 in La Paz.

Evidently, Gremio would wish to avoid such a scenario, and thus they will be going all out for the three points on Saturday.

They should be helped this weekend by the fact that their opponents are rooted to the bottom of the group and are merely playing for pride.

Estudiantes picked up four points from their first two group games but have lost the following three, including a 1-0 reverse to Gremio in La Plata on April 23, when the 10-men Brazilians struck in the 75th minute through Fernandes.

The Argentines are winless in their last three games heading into Saturday's contest, losing the first two against Lanus (1-2) and Huachipato (3-4), while Gremio are on a high after clinching qualifications against Huachipato.

That clean sheet in Chile was their third straight shutout in the Libertadores, and in their last eight matches across all competitions, they have kept six.

With little on the line for the visitors, and so much for the hosts, I'm backing them to win to nil on Saturday.

Half-time/full-time - Gremio/Gremio @ 15/8

It took Gremio just six minutes to find the goal they craved in Chile, and they held on to their lead to record a 1-0 victory.

Gremio also went in front before half-time against The Strongest in their most recent Libertadores match in Brazil.

Estudiantes, meanwhile, were 2-1 down at the interval against Huachipato last week before losing 4-3, and their last away game in the competition - a 1-0 loss to The Strongest in Bolivia - saw them concede in the 13th minute.

I expect Gremio to go at their opponents from the off on Saturday, and with the visitors having little to play for, I don't think they will encounter much resistance.

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