Girona vs Real Madrid Prediction: Back Jude to find the back of the net

Real Madrid head to Barcelona on Saturday night (20:00, Premier Sports Player) but this isn't for an El Clásico as they face Girona at the Estadi Montilivi.

Our Spanish Football expert previews this one and expects plenty of goals, including one for Madrid's English midfielder. Check out why, along with the latest odds and team news for the match in his Girona vs Real Madrid Predictions column, here at Betfred Insights...

*You can check out all of the Football Odds we offer over at betfred.com

Girona take on Real Madrid in La Liga on Saturday, in a meeting of two teams who spent over half of last season as the top two in the Spanish top flight.

It’s a different story this term. Girona’s summer exodus ensured they were never realistically going to be anything close to title candidates, but Real Madrid’s level has also dropped and they head into the weekend trailing Barcelona by four points, albeit with a game in hand.

With injuries mounting, Los Blancos commenced a period that will see them play four tough away games in the space of 11 days, with a trip to Bilbao on Wednesday night.

It was pretty much the worst case scenario for Carlo Ancelotti who watched his side lose the game 2-1, with a further blow to the already fragile confidence levels of Kylian Mbappé who missed another penalty, seven days on from his failure to convert from 12 yards at Anfield.

Mbappé’s goal return of 10 in 20 appearances for Los Blancos so far is not horrendous, but it’s some way short of the level many were expecting the Frenchman to reach.

Chances have frequently come his way, but Mbappé has only scored with 8% of his shots in La Liga. That’s the worst conversion rate of any of the 27 players to have scored four or more goals in the Spanish top flight this term and vastly inferior to Pichichi leader Robert Lewandowski who has scored with 27% of his attempts for Barcelona.

Defensive frailties, at least in the tougher matches, will also be concerning Ancelotti and individual errors from two of their most dependable players contributed to their defeat at San Mamés. Thibaut Courtois should probably have prevented the opening goal, while Fede Valverde was caught in possession by Gorka Guruzeta who raced clear to seal victory for the Basques.

That was Real Madrid’s fifth defeat in the space of 11 games. For a side that was only beaten once inside 90 minutes in all of last season, that represents a huge decline and they travel to Montilivi on Saturday having won just three out of nine away from home in all competitions this season.

Girona ought to fancy this, especially given they’ve been in pretty good form in La Liga of late. They’ve taken 10 points from a possible 12, with wins over Leganés, Getafe and Espanyol, before a 2-2 draw at Villarreal last weekend.

They came from two down to grab a point in that match and are closing in on the European places now. However, it would still be a stretch to say that they are getting back towards the very high standards of last season.

Míchel’s side have struggled badly in the Champions League, losing four of their five matches in that competition. They’ve also been beaten 4-1 by Barcelona and 3-0 by Atlético Madrid in La Liga, while midweek delivered a fresh low as Girona were dumped out of the Copa del Rey on penalties by fourth tier UD Logroñés.

While that was virtually a second string eleven, the result was symptomatic of a team that has shone brightly at times this season, but one that has been very inconsistent, with the demands of European football taking its toll on a much changed squad that has been hampered by injuries.

Girona have scored four in each of their last two home league games, and they do offer a threat on the flanks still with former Real Madrid left-back Miguel Gutiérrez perhaps their most consistent performer this term. Bryan Gil has also impressed in recent weeks and could be their main attacking outlet here, but the fact that 38-year-old Cristhian Stuani is their top league scorer, despite not making a single start, is clearly a concern for Míchel.

Team News:

Girona are doing better on the injury front than was the case a few weeks back, but they’re still missing Yangel Herrera and Viktor Tsygankov heading into this game. Jhon Solís is also rated doubtful.

Míchel is expected to go with a fairly similar eleven to the side that drew in La Liga at Villarreal last time out, with few of his fringe players staking much of a claim in the cup game on Wednesday.

As for Real Madrid, the European champions are expected to be missing Vinícius Júnior, Eduardo Camavinga and David Alaba again. Meanwhile, it may be the 2025/26 season before we see Dani Carvajal or Éder Militão again given their ACL injuries.

Both sides also have big Champions League games to come on Tuesday night, with Real Madrid travelling to Atalanta, while Girona host Liverpool. That could also have some impact on team selections, with Luka Modrić and Ferland Mendy among those who could rotate in for the visitors.

Girona vs Real Madrid Odds

Despite their current struggles, Real Madrid are the 8/11 favourites to win this match. You can back Girona at 100/30, while the Draw is priced 3/1.

Los Blancos dominated both meetings last season, recording 3-0 and 4-0 victories, and you can back Real Madrid -1.00 Handicap at 15/8 here, while Los Blancos are priced at 4/1 with a -2.00 Handicap.

Alternatively, Girona or Draw is available at 21/20 in the Double Chance market. The hosts are also on offer at 7/5 to win either half, while you can back Girona to score in both halves at 7/2.

If you fancy Mbappé to get back on the goal trail this weekend, the striker is available at 7/2 to score first and 1/1 to score anytime. He may again partner Rodrygo in attack, with the Brazilian available at 2/1 to score anytime.

Bryan Gil and Bojan Miovski are the players most likely to spearhead the Girona forward line. You can back Gil to get on the scoresheet at some point at 100/30, while former Aberdeen striker Miovski is available at 21/10 to score anytime.

You can also back Bellingham 1+ shots on target, Mbappé 1+ shots on target and Miovski 1+ shots on target at 5/2, boosted from 2/1.

Bet 1 - Over 2.5 goals & Over 6.5 corners @ 5/6

While they don’t have as much quality in their ranks this season without the likes of Artem Dovbyk and Savinho, Míchel still looks for his side to play on the front foot and commit bodies forward. That’s particularly true at home, where they’ve scored 15 times in seven home league fixtures so far.

With Real Madrid missing a number of defenders and potentially a bit tired after a tough game on Wednesday, I expect Girona to be positive here and that should make this quite an open game, with the visitors potentially having joy on the break with the pace they have in attack.

Goals look likely and with both sides averaging more than 4.5 corners won per game in La Liga this term, I’m using the Bet Builder to back Over 2.5 goals and Over 6.5 corners at 5/6.

Bet 2 - Jude Bellingham to score anytime @ 21/10

There aren’t that many positives for Real Madrid right now, but Jude Bellingham’s return to form is certainly one. The England international has scored in each of his last four games in La Liga, having failed to net all season prior to that.

That record can largely be explained by a shift from Ancelotti, with Bellingham frequently taking up the kind of advanced positions that enabled him to net 19 league goals last season.

With Vinícius out again, Bellingham is likely to operate as an attacking midfielder behind a front two of Mbappé and Rodrygo. He clearly thrives in that role and I’m backing Bellingham to score anytime at 21/10 here.

Mark Sochon primarily covers Spanish Football for us at Betfred Insights. You can check out Mark's La Liga Betting Tips along with those from the rest of the Betfred Insights Spanish Football writers on our La Liga home page...