Germany vs Portugal Prediction: Goals likely…but hosts likely too strong

A huge match in Munich for the second time in five days as Germany host Portugal for the right to play in the final of the Nations league, kick off time 20:00 and shown live on Prime Video.  

Portugal-based Jamie Pacheco isn’t particularly confident in Portugal’s chances so a double reflecting that and ‘overs’ is the way to go. Let's check out his full match preview along with his top Germany vs Portugal Prediction...

Germany 

Life looks a lot brighter now for Germany than it did before last year's Euros after a good showing in that – only eventual champions Spain could get the better of them – followed by a strong showing in the Group Stages of the Nations League.  

That said, carelessness almost got the better of them in the previous round because they were 5-1 up on aggregate against Italy and cruising before conceding three goals and almost a penalty as well that may well have levelled matters. But get through they did and on home soil, they'll feel they're the team to beat.  

And home soil means the Allianz Arena in Munich just days after it hosted the Champions League final. Interestingly, Germany probably don't have as many household names in their side as Portugal but history suggests beating them on their own patch is still one of the toughest asks in football.  

Likely XI: Ter Stegen, Kimmich, Tah, Anton, Mittelstadt, Cross, Goretzka, Gnabry, Wirtz, Sane, Undav.  

Portugal  

They were a real case of Dr Jekyll and My Hyde in the previous round against Denmark.  

They were abject, lacking energy and inspiration in the first leg against Denmark, only to re-find their slick passing game, pace on the break and technical ability when they needed it most in the second leg.  

But they left it late. In a see-saw match, they were four minutes away from elimination before Francisco Trincao made it 3-2 on the night to force extra-time. He then scored another himself in extra time before Goncalo Ramos wrapped things up late on.  

As ever, Cristiano Ronaldo was part of the story, missing an early penalty but somewhat redeeming himself with a well-taken strike in the 72nd minute to put Portugal 2-1 ahead.  

Amidst transfer speculation over whether he'll move to another Saudi club in search of more silverware or join a club in a short-term loan so he can play in the FIFA World Club Championship, he's likely to start here, part of the reason being that Goncalo Guedes, the other main striker in the side, hasn't been in great form of late.  

Guedes is one of four Portuguese players who featured for PSG on Saturday – Vitinha, Nuno Mendes and Joao Neves the others - and the most likely of the four to miss out on a starting place. Most of the team picks itself with Roberto Martinez's biggest decision being whether to play Pedro Neto, Diogo Jota or Rafa Leao alongside Ronaldo.  

Likely XI: Diogo Costa; Dalot, Ruben Dias, Antonio Silva, Nuno Mendes; Bernardo, Vitinha, Joao Neves, Fernandes; Diogo Jota/Leao/Neto, Ronaldo 

Germany vs Portugal Odds

Germany are 9/10 favourites, implied probability 52.6%, which looks about right. Home advantage is a big part of that price but so is their excellent record against Portugal.  

After a shock 3-0 win at Euro 2000 against a poor Germany side that summer, they then lost 5 in a row against German and all at major championships; so it's not hard to see who's had the upper hand and will be more confident going into this one. 

All of which means it's now 25 years (!) since Portugal beat Germany and that makes you think the 3/1 on Portugal isn't big enough. Portugal are probably a better side than they have been for much of that 25-year period against this lot, where they couldn't buy a win, so the 13/5 on the draw may interest some. But not the hardcore number crunchers, who would point to the fact that there hasn't been a draw in this fixture since a controversial World Cup qualifier back in 1997.  

So if cases can just about be made for all three outcomes, it's a sign none of the three are stand-out picks, so we move on.    

Double Chance And Over/Under 2,5 Goals  

One thing this match has had historically, is goals. Starting with that 3-0 Portugal win back in 2000, five of the last six have gone over 2.5 goals, the last two ending with wins for Germany by 4-0 and 4-2.  Both sides are better in attack than defence and fresh from high-scoring encounters in those second legs in the previous round, so we should get goals here again.  

A good option may lie with there being three goals or more in the match, with Germany avoiding defeat in it in the process. 2-1 (7/1 on the correct score market), 3-0 (14/1) and 2-2 (12/1) all look lively runners and that would cover all of them at a decent-looking 5/4.   

Anytime Scorer    

Germany's players look a tad short to me as potential goalscorers but the problem with the likes of Neto (9/2), Leao (7/2) and Jota (11/4) for Portugal is they're not guaranteed starters, so I'd wait for team news before backing any of those.  

Bruno Fernandes should start after rejecting a huge-money move to Saudi Arabia (fair play to him) but he plays rather a different role for Portugal (than for Man Utd) that doesn't allow him to get forward as much or try his luck from set-pieces or penalties with CR7 in charge. He still has a very good record for his country (25 in 78) but 3/1 away to Germany isn't too generous.  

As ever, we note big prices on Portugal's full-backs who love getting forward- Dalot at 16/1 and Mendes at 18/1- but chances to get into scoring areas may be limited in this one.  

Jamie Pacheco predominantly covers Cricket and European Football for us at Betfred Insights. You can check out his Football Betting Tips, along with those from the rest of the team, at our Football hub page...