Genoa vs Lazio Prediction: Paddy to pile more misery on Baroni

Lazio's game against Genoa at the Stadio Luigi Ferraris on Easter Monday was postponed following the death of Pope Francis, but it has been quickly rescheduled for Wednesday, April 23 (17:30).

Below are my Genoa vs Lazio predictions, alongside all the latest team news and match odds, as the visitors look to bounce back from the disappointment of their Uefa Europa League quarter-final exit to Bodo/Glimt.

Team News

Mario Balotelli (hand), Mattia Bani, Maxwel Cornet, Alan Matturo (all thigh), Honest Ahanor (knee), Hugo Cuenca (unspecified) and Ruslan Malinovskyi (leg) are all expected to be sidelined for Genoa.

However, Danish midfielder Morten Frendrup is free to return after serving a suspension in his side's goalless draw at Hellas Verona on April 13.

Football Odds

Milan Badelj or Patrizio Massini could make way for Frendrup, while Morten Thorsby and Junior Messias are among those vying for starts after coming on in the second half against Verona.

Nuno Tavares (muscle) only returned from injury as a second-half substitute against Glimt but was replaced early on in extra time against the Norwegians after suffering a recurrence of his issues.

The Portuguese left-back is back in the Lazio treatment room, but Marco Baroni can at least call upon Luca Pellegrini, who was ineligible against Glimt.

Patric (foot) and Gustav Isaksen (suspension) also miss out for the visitors, who could hand a start to Boulaya Dia. The Senegalese striker scored off the bench against Glimt and could provide some support in attack for Taty Castellanos.

Genoa vs Lazio Odds

Genoa are unbeaten at home since December 21, winning five of their six games (W5, D1) at the Luigi Ferraris in 2025, yet Patrick Vieira's side are 23/10, or a 30.3% chance, to claim maximum points on Wednesday. Lazio, who won the reverse fixture 3-0 in Rome last October, are 13/10 favourites, implying a 43.5% probability of success.

The visitors have drawn five of their last eight league games, and you can back them for another stalemate here at 21/10.

Castellanos (2/1) and Genoa forward Andrea Pinamonti (21/10), who have scored nine and eight Serie A goals this season, respectively, head the anytime goalscorer market.

Draw No Bet - Genoa @ 5/4

I'm tempted to back a home win on Wednesday, given Genoa's impressive record at the Luigi Ferraris this calendar year, but I'm mindful that all six opponents they have played there in 2025 are currently in the bottom half of the table.

Still, Vieira's only defeat at home in nine league games was against title chasers Napoli (1-2) on December 21, so the stats remain impressive.

Lazio have been good travellers in Serie A this season, winning nine of their 16 away games, and only three clubs have picked up more points away from home than Baroni's side (28).

However, prior to their 1-0 win against Atalanta in Bergamo on April 6, I Biancocelesti were thrashed 5-0 at Bologna and, more recently, in the Europa League, they were beaten 2-0 by Glimt in Norway. They did win by the same scoreline against Kjetil Knudsen's charges at the Stadio Olimpico last week to take the tie to extra time, but eventually lost on penalties, which has likely dented their confidence ahead of their trip to Genoa.

Wednesday's hosts don't have much to play for this season, especially compared to their visitors, who are fighting to get back into Europe, but that may actually work in their favour as the pressure is off them, while for Lazio, it's do-or-die. Their Europa League exit caused shockwaves across the continent and left their supporters ashamed, so they really have to step things up now.

With a few notable absentees, though, coupled with Genoa's strong home form, I'm unsure whether they can bounce back on Wednesday.

I'm taking the 'Draw No Bet' on Genoa, meaning that stakes will be returned if the scoreline ends level.

Total Goals - Under 1.5 @ 7/4

Only Lecce (39%) and Venezia (36%) have seen a higher percentage of their league games this season finish with under 1.5 goals than Genoa (34%), whose last three matches have gone under 1.5.

Il Grifone lost 1-0 to Juventus on March 29, beat Udinese by the same scoreline a week later, before drawing 0-0 with Verona last time out.

Lazio (16%) are at the opposite end of the spectrum, but four of their last five league games - including their most recent three - have gone under 2.5 goals, with their last away trip seeing just a single strike.

Only six clubs have seen a higher percentage of their away matches end with under 1.5 goals than Lazio (31%), and after scoring just four goals across their last five league games - failing to net more than once in any of them - I'm not holding out much hope for them in the attacking third at the home of Genoa, who have kept four clean sheets in their last six on their own patch.

Under 1.5 goals, then, appeals at 7/4.

Offers

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