Genoa vs AC Milan Prediction: Pavlovic to pick up a card against former Milan man Messias

AC Milan picked up a welcome win last time out in Serie A, beating relegation-threatened Venezia 2-0 in Venice. It was only a second victory in their last five league games, but a third in their last four away matches, and I Rossoneri are on the road again on Monday (19:45), taking on 13th-placed Genoa at the Stadio Luigi Ferraris.

Patrick Vieira's hosts are mid-table, safe from relegation, while the European places are too far off, but a top-10 finish is still achievable. Meanwhile, Sergio Conceicao's visitors are eyeing a late charge for the top six. Below are my Genoa vs AC Milan predictions, alongside all the latest team news and match odds.

Team News

Ruslan Malinovsky (ankle), Fabio Miretti (shoulder), Maxwel Cornet (thigh), Hugo Cuenca Martinez, Jean Onana and Caleb Ekuban (all unspecified) are expected to miss Monday's meeting with Milan, while Alan Matturo (thigh) is doubtful after missing Genoa's last three games.

Mario Balotelli has been frozen out under Vieira, failing to make a matchday squad since January 12, and his absence looks set to continue until the end of the season.

Football Odds

Danish defender Sebastian Otoa is available again for Il Grifone, having served his suspension for a red card against Lazio on April 23 in his side's 1-0 defeat to Como four days later.

Milan look set to be without Luka Jovic (unspecified) for their trip to Genoa, with the Serbian striker training separately from his teammates this week.

However, the club's options at full-back are boosted by the returns from injury of Kyle Walker and Emerson Royal, with the latter a potential beneficiary of Conceicao's new 3-4-3 formation.

Walker made his comeback from a three-game absence as a substitute in Venice last weekend, and he could start as a right-sided centre-back on Monday.

Genoa vs AC Milan Odds

Genoa haven't beaten Milan since March 2020, and not at home since October 2016, and they are 7/2 underdogs to win on Monday, implying a 22.2% chance of success. I Rossoneri, meanwhile, are 4/5, or a 55.6% chance, to claim all three points.

Il Grifone have drawn seven of their 17 home league matches this season, while December's reverse fixture at San Siro ended in a goalless draw. Another stalemate between the two teams can be backed at 13/5, and a repeat of that 0-0 scoreline at 10/1.

Milan forwards Santiago Gimenez (8/5) and Tammy Abraham (15/8) head the anytime goalscorer market at the Luigi Ferraris, with Andrea Pinamonti (11/5) first up for the hosts.

Match Result - Draw @ 13/5

Only six clubs have drawn more games in Serie A this season than Genoa (12), who, as mentioned above, have had to settle for seven stalemates at home in 2024/25.

Milan, meanwhile, have drawn nine times in the Italian top flight this term, most recently playing out a 2-2 with Fiorentina on April 5.

Genoa and Milan ground out a goalless draw in December's reverse fixture, and their other head-to-head in 2024 finished 3-3 at San Siro.

Vieira's side lost 2-0 to Lazio last time out at the Luigi Ferraris, but they were reduced to 10 men in the 21st minute of that match on April 23, and hadn't lost any of their first six games of the calendar year at home (W5, D1).

Milan have shown signs of improvement recently, famously beating Inter 3-0 in the second leg of their Coppa Italia semi-final tie on April 23 to advance to the final 4-1 on aggregate, but Genoa are a tough nut to crack at home under Vieira, and the visitors may miss out on the three points they so crave.

Player to Receive a Card - Strahinja Pavlovic (MIL) @ 12/5

Milan defender Strahinja Pavlovic has been a beneficiary of Conceicao's formational change at I Rossoneri, starting his side's last four matches as the left-sided centre-back.

The left-footed Serbia international scored in the first of those four outings, netting the second in a 4-0 win at Udinese, and he's helped Milan to three clean sheets in that run.

Pavlovic helped Milan shut out Venezia last time out, but the 23-year-old made three fouls in that 2-0 win, bringing his fouls per 90 minutes average in Serie A this season up to 1.1.

He's only been booked twice in the Italian top flight this term, but he's also received one red card, in a 2-1 loss to Lazio on March 2.

On Monday, Pavlovic may be dragged into a few one-on-one battles on the left side of defence, with the forward runs of flying left wing-back Theo Hernandez sometimes leaving the Serbian exposed against an opposition winger.

On this occasion, it could be ex-Milan man Junior Messias, who made 68 appearances for the seven-time Champions League winners across the 2021/22 and 2022/23 seasons.

The Brazilian has suffered with injuries this term, but he's been easing back to action over the last month, and last time out against Como, he came on at the start of the second half and made himself a nuisance, winning four free-kicks.

Messias is averaging two fouls won per 90 minutes in Serie A this season, and if he features on Monday, it's likely to be from the right-hand side of Genoa's attack, where he could be in direct contact with Pavlovic, making the Milan man a solid shout in the player card market.

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