Galatasaray vs AZ Prediction: Osimhen to offer hosts hope in Istanbul

A 4-1 defeat to AZ Alkmaar in the first leg of their Uefa Europa League knockout phase play-off tie last week has left Galatasaray with plenty to do in the return fixture at Rams Park on Thursday (17:45, TNT Sports 5).

Below are my Galatasaray vs AZ predictions, supported by all the latest team news and match odds, ahead of this second leg in Istanbul.

Team News

Ismail Jakobs (Achilles), Yunus Akgun (muscle) and Mauro Icardi (knee) are still out injured for the hosts, who are also without mid-season signings Mario Lemina, Jankat Yilmaz, Ahmed Kutucu and Przemyslaw Frankowski, none of whom were added to the club's Europa League squad.

Another recent arrival, Milan loanee Alvaro Morata, has sustained a hamstring injury and the Spaniard has been ruled out of Thursday's second leg.

Luckily for Galatasaray, Victor Osimhen is back from the ban that ruled him out of the side's heavy defeat in Alkmaar, and the Nigerian will lead the line as he did in Monday's 2-1 win at Rizespor, where he bagged a brace.

Also returning from suspension are Davinson Sanchez and Lucas Torreira, who both started earlier in the week.

Kaan Ayhan is banned after receiving a red card for two bookable offences in the Netherlands.

Football Odds

Goalkeeper Sem Westerveld (knee), Ruben van Bommel, Jayden Addai, Mexx Meerdink and Ibrahim Sadiq (all unspecified) are still out injured for AZ, who can at least welcome back Kristijan Belic, who served a suspension in the first leg.

AZ were afforded the weekend off by the Eredivisie so will arrive in Istanbul with fresh legs, and head coach Maarten Martens could go with the same starting XI that served him so well in Alkmaar.

Galatasaray vs AZ Odds

Galatasaray won their first three league phase games at home before drawing 3-3 with Dynamo Kyiv last time out in the competition; the Turkish giants are 8/13 to make it four wins out of five on Thursday, implying a 61.9% probability, while AZ are 7/2, or a 22.2% chance, to do the double over their more illustrious opponents.

The draw, which would be enough for AZ, is priced at 18/5, and both teams to score at 8/15.

Gala are 9/2 to win the tie by any means, with the visitors as low as 1/8 in that market.

Player to Score Two or More Goals - Victor Osimhen (GAL) @ 4/1

Osimhen was unable to take to the field in Alkmaar but returned to action in style on Monday as he scored twice to help Gala to three points in Rize.

The 26-year-old struck his 18th and 19th goals of the season for Gala, with five of those coming in Europe.

Osimhen scored twice in a 3-2 win over Tottenham Hotspur at Rams Park in November and notched another on home soil in Gala's last league phase match against Dynamo Kyiv (3-3), so he will be looking to make it three Europa League home games in a row with a goal on Thursday.

The Nigerian's brace on Monday was the fifth time this season that he had scored two or more goals for Gala and with his side needing to overturn a three-goal deficit against AZ, another couple - at least - would be welcome.

AZ have conceded at least twice in three of their four away games in Europe this term, shipping four last time on their travels to Ferencvaros (4-3), and in Hungary, Mohamed Ali Ben Romdhane helped himself to half of those for the home side.

Osimhen can repeat that trick for Gala on Thursday and offer the hosts hope in their quest to win the tie.

Total Goals - Over 4.5 @ 5/2

I mentioned in my first leg preview that Gala had shipped 16 goals in eight league phase games, more than any other side in the top 28, and they kept up appearances last Thursday, conceding the most goals (four) out of any of the 16 teams playing that night.

There have been at least five goals scored in four of Gala's nine Europa League matches this season and their last three at home in the competition have gone over 4.5.

AZ can't quite match that record, but last Thursday was their third European contest of the campaign that produced a minimum of five strikes.

I'm sure the Dutch side would be happy for a low-scoring encounter on Thursday, safe in the knowledge that even a defeat by two goals would send them through to the last 16.

However, Gala need to score at least three times at Rams Park to stand a chance of taking the tie to extra time, and it's four without reply if they want to settle proceedings in regulation time.

Gala won't go down without a fight and with Osimhen leading the line, they stand a great chance of scoring a few goals.

However, given they are yet to keep a clean sheet in the Europa League this season, with both teams scoring in all nine games, it's hard to see AZ not netting one or two themselves, and thus the over 4.5 line appeals at 5/2.

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