Football Betting Tips: Mark’s Best Bets for Matchday 38 in La Liga

Two winners from three from our La Liga expert last week as he looks to end this season with a flourish.

Mark is back with his Spanish Best Bets and he looks for more joy as he picks out his three Best Bets for MD38 over in La Liga. You can check out his Football Betting Tips for the weekend below...

Leganés vs Real Valladolid (Saturday 17:30) 

The final weekend at the bottom of La Liga comes down to a straight fight between Leganés and Espanyol for survival. Both are at home to already-relegated teams and both should win their matches. 

That scenario would relegate Leganés who must win this game and hope that the Catalans fail to do likewise at the RCDE Stadium. A victory for Borja Jiménez's side here would take them to 40 points, a figure that is almost always enough for safety, and that in itself would be an achievement of sorts given the serious limitations that exist in this squad. 

Whatever happens on Saturday, Los Pepineros can reflect on a campaign where they have competed on their return to the top flight, after winning automatic promotion along with opponents Real Valladolid last year. 

By contrast, Valladolid have been brutally exposed at the top level in a disastrous campaign that has seen them post a record-low points tally in La Liga in the 21st Century. 

Since a surprise win over Betis in January, the wheels have well and truly come off, with just one point from 18 matches. That solitary point came at home to Las Palmas, the team directly above them in the table, and the Canarian side spent more than an hour playing with only 10 men in that game. 

Therefore, Leganés could not seriously wish for a kinder final-day fixture to have in a 'must win' scenario such as this. Their opponents have been playing for pride for many weeks now, but they are consistently falling short even against teams near the bottom, so there's no reason to think we are suddenly going to witness an improved display from Álvaro Rubio's side. 

Leganés have coped pretty well with the pressure that comes with a relegation scrap, losing just one of their last six matches. They defended well in a 1-0 victory at already-relegated Las Palmas last weekend and they do at least have one consistent goal threat in the shape of the impressive Dani Raba. 

It might not be enough to keep them up, but I fully expect them to take care of business here, so I'm backing Leganés to win to nil at 1/1. 

Alavés vs Osasuna (Saturday 20:00) 

The other major issue still to be resolved on the final weekend is who will take the final two European places. Celta Vigo and Rayo Vallecano are currently in those positions, but Osasuna could potentially leapfrog one or both of those sides, if they can see off neighbours Alavés at Mendizorrotza. 

This fixture now looks a good deal more winnable than it might have done, with Alavés no longer playing for anything, after a solitary goal from Kike García secured their top-flight survival at Valladolid last weekend. 

That came on the back of another 1-0 win against Valencia, and overall Chacho Coudet has done a solid job since taking charge of the Basque side towards the end of 2024. 

Coudet has been relatively consistent with his team selections, but he may use this game to give minutes to some fringe players, but there's not a huge amount of quality for the Argentine to turn to. 

Even if he picks his regulars, they may struggle to match the intensity of an Osasuna side that is desperate to secure a return to the European stage, after the disappointment of a Conference League play-off round exit against Club Brugge in 2023. 

Osasuna should be at full strength for this game, and they take good form into it, having taken seven points from their last three fixtures, with Atlético Madrid and Espanyol both defeated by 2-0 margins at El Sadar over the past fortnight. 

While it's true that they've been less convincing on their travels, they did pick up a good point at Betis on matchday 35, and they can still count on the goal threat of Ante Budimir, La Liga's third-highest scorer this season with 21 goals, behind only Robert Lewandowski and Kylian Mbappé. 

The Croatian has hit the target at least once in seven of his last eight matches, with only one of those games ending in defeat for his team. 

With Alavés fixtures rarely serving up many goals, I'm using the Bet Builder to back Draw or Osasuna, Ante Budimir 1+ shots on target and Under 3.5 goals at 13/10. 

Villarreal vs Sevilla (Sunday 15:15) 

Not so long ago, a final-day fixture between Villarreal and Sevilla might have involved a straight fight for European places, but there has never been any serious prospect of the Andalusians getting in the mix for European qualification this season. 

They are guaranteed to finish in the bottom half of La Liga for the third year in a row, and defeat here would consign them to their lowest finishing position in the top flight since they were last relegated in 2000. 

A shambles off the pitch, Sevilla haven't been much better on it this season. If anything, they've been even less convincing since sacking García Pimienta in April, with caretaker boss Joaquín Caparrós returning for his fourth spell in the Sevilla dugout at the age of 69, but winning only one of his six games in charge. 

A 1-0 home victory over Las Palmas was enough to keep them up, but we've not seen anything from Sevilla to suggest they are going to come to the Estadi de la Ceràmica and put in a big performance in this game. Their chances aren't helped by suspensions for Loïc Badé and Isaac Romero who both saw red against Real Madrid last weekend. 

Villarreal, by contrast, should come into this one in very good spirits after a 3-2 win away to champions Barcelona which clinched Champions League qualification for the Yellow Submarine. That was a fifth straight victory for Marcelino's side who have done a good job of edging out Real Betis in the race for the final Champions League place. 

We may see a few changes from both teams here for this essentially meaningless fixture, but there is depth to this Villarreal squad, particularly in attacking areas. Even without their injured top scorer Ayoze Pérez, the home team have some good options up top in the shape of Thierno Barry, Nicolas Pépé and Gerard Moreno. They'll fancy their chances of putting to the sword a Sevilla defence that will be without their best centre-back. 

Villarreal can also rely on the outstanding Álex Baena to both create chances and score goals. This could be the 23-year-old's final game for the club, with strong talk of a summer move to Atlético Madrid, so he'll be keen to sign off on a positive note if that is to be the case. 

I can only see one result here, and I'm backing Villarreal to win and Over 2.5 goals at 19/20. 

Mark Sochon primarily covers Spanish Football for us at Betfred Insights. You can check out Mark's La Liga Betting Tips along with those from the rest of the Betfred Insights Spanish Football writers on our La Liga home page...