Football Betting Tips: Mark’s Best Bets for Matchday 22 in La Liga

Matchday 21 in La Liga was not profitable with two whiffs and a no result on a draw in a Draw No Market bet. Still, you can't win 'em all and our Spanish-based La Liga betting expert is back looking at three more selections for the weekend.

He looks to go again with his three selections for Matchday 22 and he goes scouting for his Best Football Betting Tips from La Liga...

*You can check out all of the Football Odds we offer over at betfred.com

Atlético Madrid vs Mallorca (Saturday 17:30)  

Atlético Madrid sealed progress into the Champions League round-of-16 with a convincing win in Salzburg in midweek. That will give them a couple of free midweeks in February, but they've already played seven matches in 2025, and they have a Copa del Rey quarter-final just three days after this one, not to mention a huge Madrid derby at the Bernabéu next weekend.  

That will weigh heavy on the mind of Diego Simeone when he picks his team for this game. The Atleti boss will need to weigh up the real need for three points here, following a draw and a defeat in their last two league games, against the fatigue that some of his players will be feeling.  

The likelihood is that we'll see light rotation from the strong lineup that took to the field in Austria. In-form Julián Alvarez, who is just one booking away from a suspension that would see him miss the derby, is one player who could drop out, with Alexander Sørloth likely to come in.  

Either way, the Atlético Madrid squad should be deep enough to grind out a win here, although it may not be pretty. Three of their last five league games have ended with 1-0 scorelines, while they were 1-0 winners in the reverse fixture against Mallorca in November.  

While they've had a couple of notable off days in recent months, this is still a Mallorca side that is organised and usually solid at the back. Five of their last six clashes with Los Rojiblancos have served up just one goal and they aren't likely to be too bold in their approach here. 

The visitors have some significant midfield selection issues, with Omar Mascarell suspended, while Manuel Morlanes and Antonio Sánchez are out injured. That could force Jagoba Arrasate to rejig his system, and potentially match the home team's 4-4-2.  

It's hard to see them getting great service to their forward players, up against La Liga's meanest defence, but there should be enough height and physicality in the visiting lineup to enable them to compete and largely cope with the threat of Sørloth, if the Norwegian does get the nod up top.  

I can see Atleti struggling to match the energy levels they've shown in some recent games, but they ought to still win this one, and I'm backing Atlético Madrid and Under 3.5 goals at 4/5.  

Valencia vs Celta Vigo (Sunday 15:15)  

Valencia are the third favourites for relegation heading into this weekend, which is a desperate situation for one of Spain's biggest clubs and one that has only ever been relegated once previously.  

They were hammered 7-1 at Barcelona last time out, but that was never going to be a game that was going to define their campaign. Barça were much more clinical in that game than had been the case in their other recent league matches, and Valencia weren't helped by the suspension of their best centre-back Cristhian Mosquera.  

With Mosquera returning to the lineup, and with a full squad to pick from with the exception of long-term absentee Thierry Correia, Carlos Corberán will be expecting a reaction from his side here and I fancy he'll get it.  

While Mestalla has been a toxic place at times over the past few years, most of the anger has been directed at the owners rather than the team, and it is still one of the loudest and most hostile stadiums in Spain when the supporters get behind the side.   

That factor could be one of the main aces that Valencia have in their hand as they approach the run-in. The recently appointed Corberán will be hoping that an impressive 1-0 win over Real Sociedad in their last home game, can be the start of a strong run of home results.  

There have been some improvements overall since the change in the dugout, and the only games that Los Che have lost in their last eight competitive outings have been against Real Madrid and Barcelona.  

Their chances are also increased here by some serious selection issues in the visiting camp. Celta Vigo are missing Óscar Mingueza, Hugo Álvarez and Marcos Alonso to suspension, which leaves Claudio Giráldez short on options in the two wing-back roles, while he'll also need to find a replacement for the experienced Alonso at the back. 

The Galicians are also still missing their top scorer Iago Aspas and his absence has coincided with a dip in form. It's just one point from three league games so far in 2025 for a youthful Celta side and this feels like their lowest point since Giráldez took charge last March. 

I can see the home team having the better of this one. They are averaging 6.50 corners per home game this term, while Celta have managed just 3.30 corners per game on average on their travels in La Liga. 

Given that, I'm using the Bet Builder to back Valencia or Draw and Valencia most corners at 11/8. 

Girona vs Las Palmas (Monday 20:00) 

The Monday night action comes from the Estadi Montilivi where Girona begin what may feel like the second half of their season, when they'll only have league matches to focus on, following elimination from the Champions League. 

They lost seven of their eight games in Europe. A disappointing outcome for Míchel and his team, but perhaps not a surprising one given the number of key players who departed last summer following a remarkable 2023/24 campaign, by far the best in the club's history. 

It never felt as though they properly adjusted to the demands of fitting tough midweek fixtures in around their domestic commitments. Míchel did attempt to rotate, but that in turn has perhaps delayed the process of a clear league eleven starting to emerge and gel together, in complete contrast to the success of last season. 

Despite those problems, there is still some quality in this Girona side and they'll benefit here by playing on Monday and having an extra day or two off to recover following their 2-1 Champions League defeat against Arsenal. 

Their best performances this season have all come at home in fixtures like this one against teams below them in the table. They've scored four at Montilivi against Osasuna, Espanyol and Leganés, while they also defeated bottom club Real Valladolid 3-0. 

While they do have some defensive injury doubts heading into this game, they'll fancy their chances of punishing a Las Palmas defence that ranks amongst the three worst in the league for goals conceded. 

The visitors are missing holding midfielder Dário Essugo to suspension here and the pre-season relegation favourites look to be struggling again, having enjoyed a real purple patch at the back-end of 2024 following the appointment of Diego Martínez as their new boss. 

In their most recent away game, Real Madrid had the ball in their net on seven occasions, although three of those goals were narrowly ruled out by VAR. They do look like a team that may end up sliding back towards real danger and this is a fixture that should bring the best out of the home team. I'm backing Girona and Over 2.5 goals at 6/4. 

Mark Sochon primarily covers Spanish Football for us at Betfred Insights. You can check out Mark's La Liga Betting Tips along with those from the rest of the Betfred Insights Spanish Football writers on our La Liga home page...