Football Betting Tips: Mark’s Best Bets for Matchday 16 in La Liga

Last week's Best Bets column started perfectly with a 10/11 winner but then Atlético Madrid scored five and Sociedad won 2-0 but failed to record even a solitary corner, so that part of the double went down.

We try again this week and as always, our Spanish Football expert has picked out his three Best Bets from La Liga as his best Football Betting Tips for the upcoming weekend...

*You can check out all of the Football Odds we offer over at betfred.com

Celta Vigo vs Mallorca (Friday 20:00) 

Matchday 16 of La Liga kicks off in Vigo on Friday night with a meeting of two of the strongest sides, outside of the usual European contenders. Mallorca are flying high in 6th, and while Celta Vigo are only 12th, their youthful team has impressed with a positive approach under Claudio Giráldez. 

That has certainly been the case at home. They've already been very competitive against the Madrid clubs and Barcelona at Balaídos, taking points off the latter in a 2-2 draw a fortnight ago. Celta have taken 13 points from their other five home games and head into this as the clear favourites, despite their inferior league position. 

With an average of 1.53 goals per game, the fifth best record in La Liga, their football has been easy on the eye. They are a real threat on the flanks with wing-backs Hugo Álvarez and Óscar Mingueza enjoying good seasons. Meanwhile, veteran forward Iago Aspas remains a high quality performer who has scored five and assisted three. 

Mallorca have a reputation for being a strong defensive side, but that has not been the case in recent weeks. They've gone five without a clean sheet in the league, with both teams scoring in each of their last three matches. 

While they competed well against Barcelona for 45 minutes on Tuesday, they were ripped open again and again after the break, conceding five goals against the league leaders. 

Playing again just three days after that, clearly puts them at a disadvantage on Celta who cruised to a 7-0 Copa del Rey win against lower league opposition on the same night with a heavily rotated eleven. However, Mallorca have been happy travellers this term, winning four out of seven on the road in La Liga. 

Summer appointment Jagoba Arrasate has certainly instilled a bit more belief into this side when they travel and the likes of Dani Rodríguez, Cyle Larin and Vedat Muriqi should ensure that the home defence does not have an easy night. 

Given that, I think there's value in backing Both teams to score at 11/10 here, a winning bet in eight of Mallorca's last 12 away league games, and in 10 of Celta's last 12 home fixtures. 

Las Palmas vs Real Valladolid (Saturday 13:00) 

Las Palmas were winless in 23 matches and already looking doomed to the fate of relegation as recently as October, when Luis Carrión became the first La Liga managerial casualty of the season. 

Their resurgence since the appointment of Diego Martínez has been nothing short of extraordinary, with the former Granada and Espanyol boss making an instant impact. Since Martínez's appointment, the Canary Islanders have won six out of eight in all competitions, including a stunning 2-1 win at Barcelona only last weekend. 

To give his predecessor a bit of credit, Las Palmas had been playing some watchable football even during the early part of this campaign and they've only failed to score in three of their 17 competitive fixtures this term. 

They can count on the talents of Alberto Moleiro, one of the most exciting young players in Spain, on the left flank. Midfielder Kirian Rodríguez is also starting to build on a strong debut top flight campaign in an advanced role in the middle of the park, while forward Fábio Silva is finally starting to show why Wolves spent a reported £35m for his services four years ago. 

Still only 22, the recently capped Portuguese international has scored in five of his last eight appearances in La Liga and will surely fancy his chances of adding to that tally again here. 

Real Valladolid are La Liga's bottom club and they have by some distance the worst defensive record with 32 goals conceded already, five more than any team. 

They let in five only last weekend at home to Atlético Madrid. That game saw extensive protests from the home supporters against the ownership of Brazilian legend Ronaldo. It was soon followed by the sacking of coach Paulo Pezzolano who has been equally unpopular, despite guiding the club to promotion last term. 

Ronaldo will be hoping to appoint a new boss who can have the kind of impact that Martínez has had on Las Palmas. However, Pezzolano is yet to be replaced and it's looking very likely that Real Valladolid will be under caretaker management for the trip to Gran Canaria. 

That was the case in midweek, when they were taken to Extra Time by their fourth tier neighbours Real Ávila in a Copa del Rey tie that they eventually won 4-2. It was hardly the reaction that caretaker boss Álvaro Rubio would have been hoping for though and they are likely to struggle here defensively against an in-form Las Palmas side. 

Given that, I'm backing Over 1.5 home team goals at 10/11. 

Athletic Club vs Villarreal (Sunday 15:15) 

San Mamés hosts another big game on Sunday, four days on from a fine 2-1 victory for Athletic Club against Real Madrid. That result moved the Basques three points clear of this weekend's opponents Villarreal, with the sides in 4th and 5th places respectively and looking like the leading contenders for Spain's final Champions League slot. 

Villarreal have enjoyed a strong 2024 overall, with Marcelino bringing some stability back to the club after their struggles during the reigns of Quique Setién and Pacheta. The Villarreal boss returns to his old ground this weekend, with a team that has fired in 27 goals in 14 league matches so far, making them the third highest scorers in the Spanish top flight. 

Álex Baena has been outstanding in a creative midfield role, while they have a number of strong forward options, including Ayoze Pérez whose seven goals in La Liga have come at a rate of one every 74 minutes. 

The Yellow Submarine have only failed to score once in the league, which was at the Santiago Bernabéu, but they do head into this game after a desperate 1-0 defeat against fourth tier minnows Pontevedra in the Copa del Rey on Wednesday night. 

It will be a very different eleven that takes to the field in Bilbao, so we probably shouldn't read too much into that result, but they are a side with some fundamental defensive flaws that Athletic will be hoping to exploit. 

With just one clean sheet in 16 competitive outings this season, it's hard to see an unconvincing Villarreal defence holding firm against an Athletic side that always causes problems on the flanks with the speed and skill of the Williams brothers. 

The home team can also count on the services of free-scoring midfielder Oihan Sancet, one of the standout performers so far in La Liga 2024/25. Their victory over Real Madrid came with a number of regulars only featuring off the bench, so they'll be able to count on some fresh legs here, including striker Gorka Guruzeta who came on to dispossess Fede Valverde and race clear to net an 80th minute winner. 

It's now just one defeat in 33 competitive home games for Los Leones and I'm using the Bet Builder to back Athletic or Draw and Both teams to score at 1/1 here. 

Mark Sochon primarily covers Spanish Football for us at Betfred Insights. You can check out Mark's La Liga Betting Tips along with those from the rest of the Betfred Insights Spanish Football writers on our La Liga home page...