Football Bet of the Day: 11/4 Ecuador pick of the punts

There are three cracking World Cup matches split across Tuesday night and the early hours of Wednesday morning as the last-32 round of the World Cup continues. Ivory Coast meet Norway, before France face Sweden, but the best bet of the day comes in the clash between Mexico and Ecuador.

Mexico will have the support of the Azteca Stadium on side (7pm local/Wednesday 21am BST, ITV1/STV), but that may not be enough to get El Tri home. Check out our latest Football Bet of the Day below.

Mexico vs Ecuador Odds

Hosts Mexico are strong 6/5 favourites to beat Ecuador on home turf at the Azteca Stadium, but that price looks wide of the mark.

El Tri won all three of their group stage games, but the form of those successes is certainly a little questionable. South Africa had two men sent off in their 2-0 loss to Javier Aguirre’s side and Bafana Bafana were getting into the match prior to Sphephelo Sithole’s red card.

Mexico hit only eight shots and created an expected goals figure of just 0.53 when fortunate 1-0 winners over South Korea and the 3-0 success over Czech Republic came from only 11 efforts on goal.

Raul Jimenez is a classy forward, but El Tri lack attacking penetration against stronger nations and resolute defences.

Ecuador can be categorised as an excellent team, with a rock-solid rearguard, and although it wasn’t plain sailing in qualifying, the Tricolours performed far better than their four points indicate.

Sebastian Beccacece’s side were comfortably the better team when under maximum pressure to beat Germany in their final group stage game and they were deserved 2-1 winners.

A 0-0 draw with Curacao saw Ecuador hit 27 efforts on goal and create an expected goals figure of 2.84. Beccacece’s men couldn’t have done much more and not win that contest.

The Tricolours were also unfortunate to go down to a last-gasp Amad Diallo goal in their opening World Cup tie with Ivory Coast and the South Americans appear a side which is growing into the tournament.

Excellent defenders Willian Pacho and Piero Hincapie are expertly shielded by Moises Caicedo, Gonzalo Plata provides a threat in attack and Ecuador’s youthful squad is packed full of running power and energy.

A low-scoring contest is on the cards in Mexico City, but that won’t be any bother to an Ecuador side, who have lost only one of their last 22 matches.

That only loss on that excellent run was the narrow 1-0 defeat to Ivory Coast and the 2-1 success over Germany indicates that there is no hangover for Beccacece’s men.

Ecuador look to have stronger form at the World Cup, they may well be a stronger unit than Mexico overall and home advantage doesn’t look enough to have the hosts at 6/5 in this spot.

Click here for the latest Football Odds

Sub Switch

Pre-Match Bet Builder & Single bets on qualifying Player selections. Selected leagues & markets only. Applies to Price Boosts & Turbo Boosts. Extra-time will count. T&Cs Apply.

Sub Switch

Pre-Match Bet Builder & Single bets on qualifying Player selections. Selected leagues & markets only. Applies to Price Boosts & Turbo Boosts. Extra-time will count. T&Cs Apply.