Football Bet of the Day: Barnes-storming Harvey can strike again

There’s some major football action going on across the continent on Wednesday night. Arsenal are going to attempt to hold onto their three-goal lead in Madrid as they attempt to reach the Champions League semi-finals for the first time in 16 years, while Inter Milan and Bayern Munich are also set to do battle once again.

However, there’s also a Premier League game for us to focus on, as Newcastle United host Crystal Palace, and that is where our inspiration for Wednesday’s Football Bet of the Day has come from. 

Harvey Barnes is back to his flying best after his thigh injury, and there doesn’t look to be any sign of him slowing down. After his brace against Manchester United on Sunday he has now scored three goals in his last two matches and he will be looking forward to facing Crystal Palace in front of the Newcastle faithful on Wednesday. 

Newcastle themselves are also in decent nick having won their last five games in a row in all competitions. Any dangers of a hangover after that Carabao Cup win have been silenced by a squad that is now in a great spot to qualify for the Champions League next term. This game in hand is vital as they currently sit one point clear of Manchester City and two points ahead of both Chelsea and Aston Villa - but a win will take them just four points behind second-placed Arsenal.

Given the Gunners should have a Champions League semi-final to look forward to (barring a late collapse in Madrid) that second spot could be up for grabs, especially with Nottingham Forest losing their last two outings. Crystal Palace conceded five at Man City this weekend but prior to that had been on a good run, and hadn't lost in seven, as they booked their spot in the FA Cup semi-finals. 

Football Odds

Eddie Howe remains ill in hospital at the time of writing so Jason Tindall may still be on the touchline for this fixture and it won’t be an easy one, but Newcastle are the favourites to take maximum points and I’m going to back Barnes to find the net again. He seems to have stepped up to the plate in recent weeks, but it is his selfishness that really gets me going - looking at the data. He is one of the most shot-hungry players in the Premier League having averaged 2.6 shots per 90 this season. 

Newcastle vs Crystal Palace Odds

1.17 of those shots have been on target and we saw against Manchester United for his second goal just how selfish he can be. He had an option to pass the ball to Alexander Isak but instead surged through the centre of the defence and stuck the ball in the top corner - all with the England manager Thomas Tuchel watching on. That's exactly what we want to see when backing a goalscorer.

He’s also now played back-to-back 90s in the Premier League and should be able to hold onto his place after a phenomenal display against United. Anthony Gordon is going to have to do some more work to earn back his shirt with Barnes in this form. With Isak's influence seemingly diminishing in the Magpies' attack, I think it is well worth looking at Barnes to step up to the plate again.

He’s averaging 0.62 goals per 90 this season which puts him in the top two per cent of players in the league -  so I think we are getting terrific value on him to score again on Wednesday night at 2/1. 

Offers

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You can read all our latest Football Bet of the Day offerings at our dedicated Betfred Insights content hub.