Football Bet of the Day: Pompey’s home form catches the eye

We’ve got some EFL action coming our way on Tuesday night and it is the second tier that has caught our attention for the Football Bet of the Day. Having initially been postponed due to a power failure at Fratton Park, Portsmouth host Millwall in a rearranged fixture that begins at 19:45, under the (hopefully working) lights.

This one is live on Sky Sports+, and below you can find my Football Bet of the Day for Tuesday, January 28. 

John Mousinho must be tearing his hair out when thinking about his Portsmouth side. I don’t think we’ve ever seen such a gargantuan difference between a team’s performances at home and their showings on the road, and it is really difficult to explain. 

Pompey were hammered 5-1 by West Bromwich Albion this weekend at the Hawthorns and have now lost 10 of their 15 away games this term, winning just once. They’ve conceded a whopping 38 goals on the road so far and that has given them the third-worst away record in the Championship - with only Luton and Plymouth accumulating fewer points in games not played at their home ground. 

Backing that same bunch of players to win a game of football seems like a big ask then. But when Pompey play at home it's as if they transform into The Monstars from Space Jam. Even Michael Jordan at his peak would be shaken by the fortress that is Fratton Park, as team after team rock up to the South Coast, and leave with their tails between their legs. 

Portsmouth vs Millwall Odds

Mousinho’s men have now won six and drawn one of their last seven fixtures at home, with their last defeat coming on October 25, when Sheffield Wednesday escaped with all three points. They are the best team in the league in recent weeks when playing at home, and the worst team when playing away. It’s the same players, but the mentality is completely different. Season ticket holders who don’t travel to away games must be sat wondering why they remain just two points and one place above the bottom three. 

However, their strange form does present us with value. They welcome Millwall to Fratton Park knowing a win will take them further away from danger, and I think they will get it. Alex Neil saw his side beat Luton 1-0 away from home on Saturday, and will be hoping for another good result here. However, I don’t think Millwall have the quality to avoid buckling under the pressure of this home crowd, and this home form. 

The angle I’m going to take is Pompey to score over 2.5 goals, as it delivers great value at 6/1. They have scored four past Coventry, four against Swansea and three v Stoke in recent weeks, while they also beat Middlesbrough 2-1 at home. They’ve got goals in them at this ground, and I think they will put Millwall to the sword once again here. Colby Bishop, Matt Ritchie and Josh Murphy could cause havoc, and I think we are securing great value in the home side to score over 2.5 goals. Another Pompey stormer is my selection for Tuesday’s Football Bet of the Day. 

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