Football Accumulator Tips: Jamie goes for back-to-back European Treble Winners

A great winner last time out at odds of 4.45/1 means we're 'back in black' but Jamie Pacheco is looking to improve on that and has three 'overs' selections across three different betting markets in three different games. Let's find out what they are.  

His selections come from Italy, Spain and France and all three are for Saturday. Check out his Football Accumulator Tips for this weekend below...

Welcome to the 3-3-3 betting column. Why is it called that? Glad you asked.  It's not a formation to play when you've had a man sent off but rather: 

3- The number of different selections making up the acca. 

3- The number of different (non-English) European Leagues the selections are taken from every week. 

3- The minimum odds (3/1) or 4.0 if you prefer, that the acca will come to it every week. 

And it really is as simple as that. The selections can be from any betting markets, as long as they meet the criteria set out above.  And to round things off, every week I'll leave you with a cool (or at least I think so) bit of trivia involving one of the teams featured in the acca. Simples... 

Current P and L: +1.607pts  

We need to be a bit patient with this sort of betting column because if we stick to our beliefs that this is a strategy that works well in the long run, we should persist with it and if we do, we'll be just fine. And we did, and it won, at odds of 4.5/1 to put it back in the black for the season.  

The PSG win with both teams scoring was a bit tight as it ended 2-1 but the other two won very easily indeed, with the Atalanta v Napoli game producing five goals (when we only needed two) and Barcelona only scoring once when we would even have been fine with them scoring two, but not three.    

Speaking of strategies, what worked very well last week was that by having a 2/1 selection (the PSG one) it meant the other two picks could be at much shorter odds than usual and still meet the requirements of the column. That's not to say we'll always adopt that way of doing things but it's certainly food for thought. Let's try to make it two in a row.   

Strasbourg v Lille  

Saturday, January 25, 18:00  

Selection: Over 47.5 bookings points @ 5/6  

Lille are in third place, an excellent effort at the halfway mark of the season and have achieved that with what is mostly a workmanlike squad where Samuel Umtiti, former of Barcelona, is probably their best-known player in it; but hasn't even played this season.  

I haven't watched much of them this season but they're obviously doing something right if they've won almost half their matches and only lost two.  

And I'm upset that I haven't watched more of their matches because there have clearly been some tasty ones. In five of their nine away matches so far, their opponents had a player sent off (they haven't had a man dismissed themselves in any of them) and that includes all of the last three.  

And in six of those nine, the bookings points were above 47.5.  

Opponents this weekend Strasbourg have seen 5/8 of their home games go over 47.5 points, so there's obviously been some indiscipline when they're at home, too. Let's hope there's plenty more of it, with another home player being dismissed against Lille, for what would be the fourth time in a row, being a good start. 

Empoli v Bologna 

Saturday, January 25 19:45  

Selection: Back Over 2.5 Goals @ 5/4      

Bologna have the highest strike rate of any team in Serie A for over 2.5 goals matches when playing away from home, at 80%. It's eight out of 10 and for interest's sake, the two matches that didn't have at least three goals in them had two, so they came pretty close in those ones as well.  

So, you'd think that the odds on their match away at Empoli having at least three in would be pretty short, yet we can get 5/4, which looks big indeed.  

The reason is that Empoli have a strike rate of just 30% for 'overs' matches in their home games this season, so I guess it's a case of 'something's gotta give'.  

The reason we're keen on being on the 'overs' side of things is three-fold.    

Firstly, the odds-against price on something that has happened 8/10 in Bologna's away days this term. Secondly the fact that both of Empoli's last two home matches would have been 'overs' winners (2-1 and 3-1 defeats), making it six of their last eight games that went over 2.5 goals. And thirdly that all of Bologna's last four matches actually went over 3.5 goals, so won with something to spare.  

Finally, this is a fixture that in Empoli has had at least three goals in it in four of the last five between them, so the numbers are certainly on our side. They won't count for much if the forwards are as uninspired on the day as the keepers are inspired but the rationale at least is sound.   

Valladolid v Real Madrid    

Saturday, January 25 20:00  

Selection: Over 1.5 Away Goals @ 2/7    

Similar to last week, higher odds than usual across the first two selections mean the third one can be at a much shorter price, while still keeping to the rules of the column; see above if you need a refresher for how it all works.  

I don't think the reasons for backing a 2/7 chance need much by the way of explanation so I'll go through them very quickly and we can get on with our lives!  

Real are top, Valladolid bottom. Real have scored at least two goals in the game in each of their last 12 fixtures and in each of their last three games against this lot. So (famous last words): we should be ok here.  

James' Fun Fact  

Real Madrid's tendency to score at least two goals a game can in part be explained by the fact that 12 different players have scored for them in the league and a further two different players scoring in other competitions. Of course, it also helps when Kylian Mbappe has 19 goals for the season and Vinícius Jr has 17…