Flamengo vs Millonarios Prediction: Pedro to fire first again in routine home win
After five games it all comes down to the sixth and final one of Copa Libertadores Group E for Flamengo, who must beat Millonarios on Wednesday (KO, 01:00) to book their place in the last 16 of the competition.
Read below for my Flamengo vs Millonarios prediction as the Brazilians host the Colombians at the Maracana in Rio de Janeiro.
Flamengo and Millonarios met on matchday one of the group stage in Bogota, playing out a 1-1 draw despite the Colombians seeing Larry Vasquez sent off in the 61st minute. The Brazilians struck the opener three minutes later through Pedro, but Daniel Ruiz fired an 80th-minute equaliser to salvage a point for the hosts.
Nine days later, Flamengo put themselves in a strong position by beating Palestino 2-0 at home, but a couple of subsequent defeats - 2-1 in Bolivia to Bolivar and 1-0 in Chile to Palestino - put their qualification hopes under threat.
However, a 4-0 victory over Bolivar in Rio last time out in the competition put them back on track, though they still sit three points behind Group E leaders Bolivar and need the Bolivians to lose at home to Palestino if they are to stand any chance of grabbing top spot for themselves.
Most importantly, Flamengo need to at least match Palestino's result to ensure they do not slip into third and the Copa Sudamericana.
Millonarios head into Wednesday's contest knowing that they cannot qualify for the Copa Libertadores or Copa Sudamericana knockouts, as they are four points behind both Palestino and Flamengo.
They are yet to win a game in the group stage, following up their draw against Flamengo with back-to-back 3-1 away defeats to Bolivar and Palestino before drawing against both 1-1 at home.
Team News
Bruno Henrique has missed Flamengo's last three matches through injury and is unlikely to return on Wednesday, but Chile international Erick Pulgar has trained normally and is in line to return after a six-game absence.
Omar Bertel and Jader Valencia remain sidelined for the visitors.
*Please click on the link above to be taken to the main Flamengo vs Millonarios page on betfred.com (or app) for all the live betting prices on this match.
The hosts are huge favourites at 1/9 to take all three points in their group finale, giving them an implied win probability of 90%, while the visitors are 16/1, or a 5.9% chance, to pick up their first victory.
The draw can be backed at 6/1, both teams to score at 6/4, and over 2.5 goals at 4/9.
Flamengo to win both halves @ 1/1
Flamengo failed to win any of their three away games, losing twice and picking up just a single point, but they've found things much easier on home soil.
The three-time Libertadores champions have scored six goals across two games at the Maracana and are yet to concede there. They beat Palestino 2-0 in Rio, scoring in the first half through Pedro and in the second through Leo Ortiz, before beating Bolivar 4-0.
Flamengo won both halves of that match too, Gerson, Ayrton Lucas and Everton striking in the first 45 minutes and Pedro adding another in the 56th minute.
Meanwhile, Millonarios lost away to Palestino and Bolivar, losing both halves against the former in Santiago.
The Colombians have nothing but pride to play for on Wednesday, and that should play into Flamengo's hands as they look to take a lead into half-time and extend their advantage in the second half.
Pedro first goalscorer @ 5/2
The 2022 Libertadores top scorer is in another rich vein of form in front of goal, striking in each of his last three games, two of which he opened the scoring in.
Pedro has three goals so far in this year's Libertadores, netting first in Flamengo's 1-1 draw with Millonarios on April 2 and scoring first in a 2-0 win over Palestino nine days later.
In fact, in the last eight matches Pedro has scored in, six of them have been the first of the game.
The 26-year-old looks the best bet to strike first again on Wednesday as Flamengo hosts a Millonarios side that has shipped six goals in two away games, and the Colombians have already conceded to Pedro in the group stage.
Check out the rest of our Football Betting Tips here.
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