Fiorentina vs Torino Prediction: Adams 100/30 to deepen Viola woes

Fiorentina suffered a real body-blow this week when they were beaten by bottom club Monza, but on Sunday they have the chance to re-enter the top-four conversation in Serie A when they host Torino at the Artemio Franchi (12:30 local, 11:30 GMT).

Moise Kean scored the only goal when these sides met in Piedmont in November, and the Viola will be gunning for a league double. Below are my Fiorentina vs Torino predictions, alongside a full preview and match odds.

Team News

Raffaele Palladino might be feeling the pressure on the back of a poor run of Fiorentina form, but the one thing the head coach has going for him is a relatively clean bill of health in his squad.

Danilo Cataldi’s thigh complaint is the only injury problem for the Viola, leaving Palladino with plenty of options as he looks to regain the winning formula that had his side well placed before their current streak of six winless games in league and cup (four defeats, two draws).

Torino allenatore Paolo Vanoli brings his side in off the back of a morale-boosting draw in the derby against Juventus, but he is banned from the touchline on Sunday having been red-carded in that feisty 1-1 tie.

Captain Duvan Zapata is out for the remainder of the season with an ACL injury, but Che Adams could start for the Granata.

Karol Linetty and Sebastian Walukiewicz are suspended, while there is still no Ivan Ilic due to a left thigh issue. Gvidas Gineitis is back in training but this trip might come too quickly for him.

Fiorentina vs Torino Odds

Despite their difficult spell of late, it is Fiorentina who are favoured by Betfred at 7/10, which implies a 58.8% probability of a home win.

In contrast, Torino are available at 4/1 for the victory, which at a 20% chance is either good value for a team with a 25% win record in Serie A (30% away from home), or a bit slender given their two wins in 15 and one in the last 11. It all depends on your point of view.

With Fiorentina having gone six without a win, it is 21/20 for Torino to get either a win or a draw and continue the home side’s poor run.

Draw or Torino @ 21/20

Honestly, my instinct is that Fiorentina’s slide can’t go on forever. But the evidence of Monday night in Monza just does not back up my gut, especially given the context of the five games which preceded it.

Il Toro haven’t strung much together in the way of positivity since they slipped from the top of the league back in September, but they have at least turned a run of defeats (six in seven through to late November) into a series of draws (W1, D5, L2 in eight since).

As a result, I think the away side are actually the safer bet to get something out of this one. They are the ones shower greater resilience, they have been better at the back (five conceded in six compared to Fiorentina’s 10 in five) and also have six times as many points in their last five games as the hosts do.

To that end, I have to go with the probability that that continues. The 21/20 odds suggest a 48.8% chance of the Granata taking something home with them, but they have done so in five of the last six (83.3%).

Meanwhile, the Viola’s four defeats in five (80%) also far outweighs the odds of this outcome, so it’s the head over the gut for me in this one.

Che Adams anytime goalscorer @ 100/30

Moise Kean might be among the leading figures in the Serie A goalscoring charts (11 in 19 league games), but that just helps to prohibit value when looking at the former Juventus and Paris Saint-Germain man. And, given our summation about the potential of Toro being successful, the value might be at the other end of the pitch.

Of his five goals since arriving from Southampton in the summer, Adams has bagged three on the road. Two of them have come in Torino’s last two matches on their travels, and all three have come in successful outings (two wins, one draw).

If we think Torino are likely to earn something, then we’re probably expecting chances to come the way of the Scotland international. And there’s a bit of value to be had here in the anytime goalscorer market at 100/30 (23.1% implied chance).

His six goals in 18 games in all competitions at 33.3% offer a picture of why this might be a good bet.

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