Fiorentina vs Napoli Prediction: Goals on the cards in 6/1 and 7/2 shouts

Fiorentina will be aiming to bolster their hopes of a return to Champions League football when they host second-placed Napoli in Serie A on Saturday at the Artemio Franchi (18:00 local, 17:00 GMT).

La Viola have not played at the top table in Europe for 15 years, but their recent form has seen them start to be separated from the four UCL spots. Here are my Fiorentina vs Napoli predictions, along with full preview and odds.

Team News

Fiorentina could have a full squad for head coach Raffaele Palladino to choose from, with Danilo Cataldi expected to have overcome an illness in time to make the cut.

There will be a battle between Lucas Beltran and Albert Gudmundsson to start alongside the current capocannoniere Moise Kean, who has 15 goals to his name in the league.

The Viola have added a new face already since the opening of the January transfer window, but Nicolas Valentini won’t start this one after the confirmation of his move from Boca Juniors on Thursday.

Alessandro Buongiorno’s absence is the biggest piece of team news for Napoli. The former Torino captain is out with a back injury suffered in training in mid-December.

He was replaced by Juan Jesus for the narrow victories over Genoa and Venezia during the Christmas period, and the Brazilian is again likely to be called upon to start in the left centre-back position.

Kvicha Kvaratskhelia, David Neres and Marco Politano have each played in the starting wide attacking positions either side of Romelu Lukaku in recent games, and it could well be Politano sitting out of this one with the former pair favoured.

Fiorentina vs Napoli Odds

The home side have seen their sensational form since October desert them somewhat in recent times, with two defeats and a draw being recorded in their three matches following the end of their eight-game win streak.

They are 21/10 with Betfred to get back to winning ways against Antonio Conte’s second-placed Azzurri, implying a 32.3% probability of victory.

The visitors are on a three-game winning run since back-to-back league and cup defeats to Lazio, and you can get 7/5 about them continuing their form and retaking top spot from Atalanta in the process.

The draw is on offer at a healthy 11/5, which suggests a 31.3% chance, with Fiorentina having drawn five of their 17 Serie A games this season and taken a point from Juventus last time out.

Napoli to win, 3+ goals in the match & Lukaku to score @ 6/1

I love the look of this price boost from Betfred, who have upped the initial 5/1 to 6/1 for this combination.

Napoli have been getting stuff done for the most part this term, and with Fiorentina having seen that sensational run come to an end they have struggled to rediscover their best form in recent weeks.

I can see there being a fairly explosive start though, and I can well imagine both teams scoring given that five of the last eight meetings in all competitions between this pair have involved goals on either side of the ledger.

Throw in the fact that Lukaku is due a goal, and I think 6/1 is generous here. The Belgian hasn’t gone three league matches without netting this season, and after coming up short against Genoa and Venezia - even seeing a penalty saved in the latter of those - I can well see him starting the new year with a bang in Tuscany.

Put them all together and a 6/1 shot at 14.3% is quite the boost.

Football Odds

Both teams to score in first half – Yes @ 7/2

As mentioned, I think these sides could duke it out somewhat in the opening stages before this game settles down. To that end, the 7/2 for both teams to be on the board by half-time looks good to me.

That gives an implied probability of 22.2%, but I see these two scoring early at a way more than two-in-nine clip.

In their last eight meetings, this eventuality has come up four times, so I find the odds offered by Betfred a massive understatement of what could be served up in the first 45 minutes at the Franchi on Saturday.

You can read all our latest Football Betting Tips at our dedicated Betfred Insights content hub.