Fiorentina vs Viktoria Plzen Prediction: Czech challengers can keep it tight in Florence

Fiorentina will be keen to make amends after losing in last season’s Europa Conference League final to West Ham, but they will need to improve on their first-leg display in the Czech Republic if they are to achieve that goal.

Viktoria Plzen held La Viola to a 0-0 draw last week and will be looking to frustrate their opponents again at the Stadio Artemio Franchi in Florence as the two battle it out for a place in the semi-finals on Thursday evening (17:45). The match is live in the UK on TNT Sports 4, and you can read our Fiorentina vs Viktoria Plzen prediction below.

Team News

M’Bala Nzola is expected to be the hosts’ only absentee after the Angolan forward missed Monday’s clash with Genoa. Andrea Belotti should get the nod up top for Fiorentina, despite failing to score in his last 12 games.

Long-term absentees Jan Sykora, Matej Valenta, Rafiu Durosinmi, Jhon Mosquera and Erik Jirka all continue to miss out for the visitors, who could name an unchanged side from the first leg, although Samson Dweh may return in the back three.

Match Odds

Fiorentina come into this game as 4/11 (90 mins) favourites, giving them an implied win probability of 73.3%, with Plzen priced up at 8/1 - or an 11.1% chance - and the draw 18/5.

Both teams to score (90 mins) can be backed at 6/5, with over 2.5 available at slightly lower odds of 5/6.

Under 2.5 goals (90 mins) @ 5/6

The first leg in the Czech Republic saw these two manage a combined three shots on target in a 0-0 draw and another drab affair may unfold in Florence.

Fiorentina have found goals hard to come by lately, netting just three in their last five games, and look unlikely to suddenly rack up a few against a side who have kept four consecutive clean sheets and have been immense at the back in the Europa Conference League this term.

Plzen had to come through three rounds of qualifying to even make the group stage and they have been brilliant defensively, keeping a ludicrous 12 clean sheets in their 15 European games this season.

With their style focused on keeping things tight, it is no surprise that only one of their last seven Conference League matches have gone over 2.5 goals, and another low-scoring affair could be on the cards on Thursday.

Fiorentina’s last four games have all seen less than three strikes, making the 5/6 about under 2.5 goals an appealing price, with a repeat of the first-leg’s 0-0 scoreline also catching the eye at 10/1.

#PickYourPunt - BTTS - No, Over 39.5 booking points, Carlos Eduardo Lopes Cruz (Cadu) to be booked (90 mins) @ 9/2

As previously detailed, neither of these sides are prone to netting plenty of goals while Plzen’s excellent clean sheet record will give them hope of keeping things tight in Florence, so backing one or both teams not to score looks a good place to start for a #PickYourPunt.

The first leg was quite a mellow affair, with very little action, but four yellow cards were still brandished in the Czech Republic. With the stakes raised due to a place in the semi-finals being on the line, expect tempers to flare and another four cards to be handed out.

Cadu rates a solid bet to be one of those to be cautioned on Thursday. The Brazilian wing-back was booked in the first leg and will have to cope with Fiorentina’s star man Nico Gonzalez again, so take the Brazilian to be cautioned to round out a 9/2 #PickYourPunt.

Check out the rest of our Football Betting Tips here.