Fiorentina vs Inter Prediction: Back Lautaro to find the back of the net

The biggest game of the weekend in Serie is the Sunday night clash between Fiorentina and Inter Milan.

Our Italian Football expert Daniele Fisichella weighs-in with his thoughts ahead of the match live on TNT Sports...

It was mission accomplished for Inter in Riyad as they won the first trophy of the season. But due to their involvement in the SuperCoppa, the Neroazzurri are now, for the first time, chasing Juventus but with a game in hand.

A scenario that sends a tingle down the spine of Inter fans as it reminds them of what happened two seasons ago.

Back then Inter’s away game against Bologna, postponed in early January, was eventually played in mid-April, 14 match days after its scheduled date.

That was a decisive factor for AC Milan’s comeback and, as the Neroazzurri eventually lost to Bologna, their title conquest.

With Juventus playing 24 hours before at home against Empoli, Inter can’t afford a slip as next week they’ll host Juve in a proper Scudetto showdown.

Inter have been, by far, the best team in Italy but the next three weeks, before the Champions League returns, will mark their destiny.

Simone Inzaghi’s men deservedly won the SuperCoppa beating Lazio and Napoli, during two different games, that highlighted Inter’s different virtues: confidence, technical abilities but also resilience.

However the trip to Saudi Arabia has left its toll as Inter will play in Firenze without Barella and Calhanoglu (both suspended) and Alessandro Bastoni who suffered from muscular fatigue after the semi-final against Lazio and will be rested.

Fiorentina were disappointing against Napoli: once again they missed a lot of chances (including a penalty with Jonathan Ikone) and got punished by their usual defensive mistakes.

But La Viola have had more time to prepare for this match and at home have only lost two games this season. The major issue for Vincenzo Italiano at the moment is the lack of cutting edge, since Nico Gonzalez has been sidelined due to injury the goals have dried up: they’ve only scored six times in the last eight games.

Inter are unbeaten this season away from home, where they kept seven clean sheets and played seven matches that have produced less than three goals.

Team News

The big news for Fiorentina is that Gonzalez (nine goals and two assists this season) might be fit enough to play on Sunday. The Argentine has been out, due to a muscular injury, since mid-December.

Captain Cristiano Biraghi (a former Inter player) is suspended, so Davide Faraoni, signed in the January transfer market from Verona, will play on the right-hand side of the defense. Fabiano Parisi will slot at left-back, and Beltran (three goals in the last seven games) will lead the attack.

Simone Inzaghi will rejig the midfield as Hakan Çalhanoğlu and Nicolo Barella are both suspended. Kristjan Asllani will be the playmaker and David Frattesi (four goals already this season, but only one league start) will take on more attacking duties. Defender Alessandro Bastoni will be rested, so Inter’s back three will be made of Francesco Acerbi, Stefan De Vrij and Benjamin Pavard.

Denzel Dumfries should replace Matteo Darmian at wing-back; Serie A top goalscorer Lautaro Martinez (who netted seven goals in 13 games against Fiorentina) will play up front alongside Marcus Thuram who scored in the reverse fixture that ended 4-0 to Inter.

Fiorentina vs Inter Odds

The visitors are favourites to win at the Artemio Franchi, but the odds are really good (10/11), considering the Neroazzurri are unbeaten away from home this season and have won three of their last four matches against Fiorentina.

A win for the hosts pays 3/1: La Viola have only lost two home games this season (against Juventus and Empoli) but haven’t defeated Inter at home since April 2017 with a pyrotechnic 5-4.

In fact in the last 17 matches there have been just two victories for Fiorentina, nine for the Neroazzurri and six draws. The odds for the draw are 5/2 as Inter have shared the points in three of their last six away matches.

Over and Under 2.5 goals pay exactly the same, 5/6. Six of Fiorentina's last eight Serie A games have stayed under 2.5 goals but there have been four goals or more in six of Inter's 20 Serie A matches this season.

Fiorentina to take over 4.5 corners @ 11/10

Fiorentina can match Inter in terms of ball possession and will attack with more conviction thanks to the return of Nico Gonzalez. They’ll be more rested than the Neroazzurri and start the game on the front foot.

This season Inter have played three games without Calhanoglu and have never won and the absences of Barella (who hasn’t missed a game this season) and Bastoni are also very important.

If Inter manage to score the first goal, they’ll have a fair deal of defending to do in the second half.

Lautaro Martinez anytime goalscorer @ 7/5

Thanks to his stoppage time goal in the SuperCoppa final the Argentine is now Inter ninth all-time goalscorer, with 123 goals (one less than Mauro Icardi).

After missing a couple of games at the end of 2023 he has returned in top form, scoring four in his last four appearances.

He’s the classic ‘streaky striker’ and his excellent record against La Viola (six goals and one assists in the last four game) can’t be overlooked.

You can check out all of Daniele's Serie A Betting Tips here each week along with those of our other Italian Football writers...