Finland vs Poland Prediction: No Lewa, no problem for Poland

There’s a tussle between the top two in Group G to look forward to on Tuesday night as Finland host Poland in Helskinki (19:45, Prime Video). The Netherlands are playing catch up and landed a big win against Finland last time out so the meeting between these two takes on major significance as we look ahead to the World Cup next summer. 

Below you can find my Finland vs Poland predictions as we search for a big winner. 

Football Odds

Team News

Finland were well-beaten by the Netherlands last time out so manager Jacob Friis may choose to switch things up slightly for this one. Former Rangers midfielder Glen Kamara could come into the midfield, while Fredrik Jensen is pushing for a start having come off the bench against the Dutch. 

Captain Lukas Hradecky will keep his place in goal while it looks as though Finnish legend Teemu Pukki will have to settle for a spot on the bench once more. He’s the nation’s top scorer with 42, but is now 35, playing for HJK Helsinki. 

Meanwhile, all of the talk surrounding Poland has been around the absence of Robert Lewandowski. The 36-year-old striker has 85 goals in 158 appearances for his country but has had a major falling out with manager Michal Probierz, who stripped him of the captaincy. 

The Barcelona forward released a statement over the weekend that stated: “Taking into account the circumstances and a loss of trust in the coach, I have decided to resign from playing for the Poland national team for as long as he remains in charge.

"I hope I will still have another chance to play again for the best fans in the world."

New captain Piotr Zielinski remained on the bench for the friendly against Moldova on Friday, but will start here, while Krzysztof Piatek will also lead the line up front alongside either Kamil Grosicki or Adam Buksa. 

Finland vs Poland Odds

Finland are 18/5 to win this game, with Poland available at 5/6. That gives the away side an implied win probability 54% as they target making it three wins on the bounce. 

A draw can be backed at 12/5, over 2.5 goals is 6/5 and BTTS is 1/1. Krzysztof Piatek is the favourite to score first at 9/2.

Poland to win to nil @ 7/4

Poland are a solid outfit, even without Lewandowski up front, and they should be able to put themselves in a decent position to reach the World Cup. In my eyes, this group will end with the Netherlands and Poland as the top two, and despite their reasonable start - I don’t rate Finland highly. 

Poland have won three games in a row in 2025, and they’ve won them all to nil, against Lithuania, Malta and Moldova. They’ve always played international football in a rather defensive manner, and in this away game, I don’t think that will change. They’ve got enough quality on the pitch to pick off Finland, who haven’t proven themselves up against decent European opposition. 

In fact, Finland’s 1-0 success against Malta is their only win in their last 11 internationals. They failed to win a single game in 2024, as England, the Republic of Ireland and Greece all beat them home and away in the Nations League. There’s not enough quality in this squad and now Pukki’s powers are diminishing, they lack a goal threat. Poland should be able to keep them out, and secure the three points. 

Matty Cash to score anytime @ 9/1

I think the odds on offer for Matty Cash to find the net at anytime are far too big as we approach this qualifier. The Aston Villa right-back is now playing high up the pitch as a wing-back in Probierz’s 3-5-2, and found the net against Moldova on Friday. 

With Lewandowski no longer leading the line, Poland are going to have to start finding goals from all over the pitch, and it may actually be beneficial to their attack to not always be searching for the Barcelona striker. Cash is going to get a lot of the ball high up the pitch against Finland, and won’t be shy to try his luck. 

He has a shot every two matches in the Premier League this season, and that was playing in a back four, and mainly called upon from the bench. For Poland, we are going to see him pose an attacking threat, and I think there’s big value in backing him to find the net at anytime on Tuesday night. 

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