Uruguay vs Argentina Prediction: No Messi, no party?

Without a doubt the glamour tie of this international break. Uruguay, currently second in South American qualifying, take on table-toppers Argentina (23:30, Friday) in what promises to be a belting encounter. Both of these teams should be at the World Cup next year but the battle for South American supremacy is always fierce. 

Below you can find my Uruguay vs Argentina predictions featuring team news, betting tips and more. 

Team News

Marcelo Bielsa is up to his usual tricks again. Instead of naming a 25 or 28-man squad for the upcoming fixtures, he’s invited 38 players to help him out over the next week or so, meaning that he’s got his hands full - and the majority of the squad won’t get any gametime at all.

Manuel Ugarte of Manchester United is suspended for this Friday’s clash against Argentina but will likely return against Bolivia, while Ronald Araujo is back fit and should start for his country for the first time since last summer. He’s missed the last six Uruguay fixtures but will strengthen this defence massively. 

Meanwhile, Darwin Nunez is still popular with Uruguay and has 13 goals in 33 for his country, despite his poor club form. He’s not scored since the Copa America and will want to change that here, while Federico Valverde and Rodrigo Bentancur should feature in a talented midfield. 

For Argentina, the headline news is the absence of Lionel Messi. The finest player the world has ever seen picked up an injury in the weekend win over Atlanta United and as a result has been left out of this squad, with his side in pole position to top this qualifying group. 

Lionel Scaloni is also without Paulo Dybala, Giovani Lo Celso and Gonzalo Montiel, while Lautaro Martinez has withdrawn from the squad with a hamstring problem. Messi’s absence opens the door for Atletico Madrid’s Angel Correa to play, while clubmate Julian Alvarez will provide their biggest goal threat. 

Emiliano Martinez, Cristian Romero, Alexis Mac Allister and Giovani Lo Celso are the representatives from the Premier League in this Argentina squad. 

Uruguay vs Argentina Odds

Uruguay are priced at 6/4 to win this game having gone unbeaten in their last three games, while Argentina are priced at 15/8, giving them an implied win probability of 40%. A draw can be backed at 9/5, and over 2.5 goals is available at 13/8.

If you fancy BTTS that is 11/10, having come in during Uruguay’s last two outings. Rodrigo Uguirre and Julian Alvarez are the joint-favourites to open the scoring at 13/2 in this one. 

Uruguay to win @ 6/4 

Backing against Argentina isn’t something that comes naturally to me, but I really do think they are in for a tough time on Friday. The injury issues have clearly weakened Scaloni’s hand and without Messi, they may lack the spark needed to tear Uruguay apart. 

Argentina also haven’t been in the best form, especially on the road. They may have beaten Bolivia 1-0 and Peru 6-0 at home, but they’ve not won any of their last three away matches, losing 2-1 to Paraguay and Colombia, and drawing 1-1 with Venezuela - hardly the toughest opposition either. 

I fear for them against this vibrant Uruguay outfit that reached the semi-finals of the Copa America and have picked up three credible results in their last three games. Good price for a home win that would make the top of the table look very interesting indeed. 

Correct score: Uruguay 2-1 Argentina @ 9/1 

Uruguay ended a run of 0-0 draws with a 3-2 win over Colombia and then they followed it up with a 1-1 draw in Brazil. I think they will edge this one but I also have to back Argentina to score, given the attacking options at their disposal - even without Messi and Martinez. 

I think the most likely outcome is a narrow home victory, with Argentina losing two of their last three on the road by this scoreline. Both teams should get on the scoresheet so I’m more than happy to back a 2-1 correct score at odds of 9/1. 

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