UAE vs Iraq Prediction: 4/1 tip for vital World Cup home-leg lead

The United Arab Emirates and Iraq begin their last-chance quest for a place at the 2026 World Cup on Thursday when they meet in the first leg of the AFC fifth-round qualifier in Abu Dhabi (20:00 local, 16:00 GMT, live on YouTube).

Both sides narrowly missed out on booking a ticket to the USA, Canada and Mexico in the previous round, but the winner of this tie will be part of the intercontinental play-offs in March. My UAE vs Iraq predictions are below, along with full team news and Betfred’s latest match odds.

Team News

Cosmin Olaroiu could make changes once more having altered four of the UAE starting lineup ahead of the 2-1 defeat to Qatar which blocked their initial path to the World Cup.

Caio Canedo, Yahia Nader, Ala Zhir and Ali Saleh all stepped into the XI last time out after having an impact off the bench in the win over Oman three days earlier. But Olaroiu may switch things around once more, and that could mean a recall for Abdalla Ramadan among others.

Yahya Al-Ghassani hasn't featured for his club side Shabab Al-Ahli since the last international break, but he has received a call-up for these matches. His Shabab teammate Gaston Suarez could come into Olaroiu's thinking too.

For Graham Arnold’s Iraq side there is the boost of Manaf Younis being declared fit to line up in defence.

Luton Town’s loanee striker from Ipswich Town, Ali Al-Hamadi, is among the Iraqi attacking options.

UAE vs Iraq Odds

As the home side, it is UAE who have the favour of Betfred’s oddsmakers here. Al-Abyad are 11/10 for the win, with Iraq 11/4.

The draw is a 2/1 chance, while you can get 9/5 about a UAE half-time lead.

World Cup Odds

UAE clean sheet @ 11/10

Given the nature of the two-legged contest, it would be a surprise to see two sides going hammer and tongs at each other.

Iraq have generally kept things tight in their away games thus far, with only Palestine and South Korea scoring against them in nine such fixtures.

For their part, the UAE have lost only to Iran on home soil and look likely to take the game to their opponents having dictated much of the early play against Qatar last month.

So I’m going for a UAE clean sheet, with Iraq tapering off their adventure in the hope of starting the second leg on a level playing field.

Today's Football Fixtures

Draw/UAE @ 4/1

If the UAE are to get an advantage heading to Basra on Tuesday, it may be as a result of patience given Iraq’s likely approach.

Only two of Al-Abyad’s five victories since the opening round of qualifiers have come off the back of half-time leads, with most of their damage done in the second half of games.

And the 4/1 odds about that happening again in Abu Dhabi at an implied 20% probability looks extremely generous to the punter.

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