Poland vs Lithuania Prediction: 16/5 Szymanski to strike again for Bial-Czerwoni

Poland reached the last 16 of the 2022 Fifa World Cup in Qatar and their bid to qualify for the 2026 tournament in the USA, Canada and Mexico starts on Friday (19:45) when they host Lithuania, who have never qualified for a major finals, at the PGE Narodowy in Warsaw.

Below are my Poland vs Lithuania predictions, complete with all the latest team news and match odds, ahead of this Group G game in the Polish capital.

Team News

Poland national team captain Robert Lewandowski (Barcelona), who is the all-time leading appearance maker (156) and goalscorer (84) for his country, is the headline name in Michal Probierz's squad for this month's World Cup qualifiers against Lithuania and Malta. Lewandowski missed November defeats to Portugal and Scotland but is back available and should be in a buoyant mood after scoring 12 goals this calendar year for his club, the latest of which was a superb finish on Sunday night to spark a 4-2 comeback victory over Atletico Madrid in the Spanish capital.

The 36-year-old has netted 35 times for Barca this season and he's joined in the Poland squad by fellow forwards Adam Buksa (Midtjylland) and Krzysztof Piatek (Basaksehir) who are also enjoying productive seasons in front of goal, netting 10 and 28 times respectively in all competitions for their club sides in 2024/25.

Sebastian Szymanski (Fenerbahce), Matty Cash (Aston Villa), Jan Bednarek (Southampton) and Jakub Kiwior (Arsenal) are some of the other notable names selected by Probierz, but Wojciech Szczesny (Barcelona), who came out of retirement last October to fill the void left by stricken shot-stopper Marc-Andre ter Stegen, hasn't reversed his decision to stop playing for his country, despite a series of stunning performances for the Uefa Champions League and La Liga title chasers.

Piotr Zielinski (Inter), Arkadiusz Milik (Juventus), Sebastian Walukiewicz (Torino) and Nicola Zalewski (AS Roma, on loan to Inter) are all injured for Bialo-Czerwoni.

Football Odds

Fedor Cernych (FK Kauno Zalgiris) can move to within one cap of 100 for his country by playing in their World Cup qualifiers with Poland and Finland this month. The 33-year-old is Lithuania's captain and with 15 goals is just four behind his nation's all-time leading marksman, Tomas Danilevicius.

Edgaras Jankauskas' squad is lacking goals with Armandas Kucys (NK Celje) next up on four from 13 caps, although 20-year-old midfielder Gvidas Gineitis (Torino) is one player that will be looking to assume more responsibility after scoring twice in Serie A this season and netting his first international goal in Lithuania's 2-1 defeat to Cyprus last November.

Poland vs Lithuania Odds

Poland (1/9) are heavy favourites to kick off World Cup qualifying with a victory against Lithuania (16/1), who are given a 5.9% chance of success compared to the hosts' 90%.

The draw is priced at 6/1, both teams to score - a winner in 10 of Poland's last 11 games - at 7/4, and over 3.5 total goals at 11/8.

Lewandowski is miles clear in both the anytime (2/5) and first (13/8) goalscorer markets with Cernych (6/1) considered Lithuania's most likely anytime goalscorer.

To Win Both Halves - Poland @ 1/1

Poland have lost four of their last five games and came bottom of their Nations League group behind Portugal, Croatia and Scotland, suffering relegation to the second division, but they did score nine goals across six fixtures in Group A1, only blanking in a 1-0 defeat to Croatia in Osijek last September.

Probierz's side should find more joy in World Cup qualifying as Lithuania, Malta and Finland account for six of their eight matches - the other two will be against the Netherlands or Spain.

Lithuania lost all six games in the third tier of the Nations League last autumn, finishing bottom of Group C2 behind Romania, Kosovo and Cyprus. They didn't suffer any embarrassing scorelines, losing five games by a one-goal margin, and the other by two, but Poland should represent a step up in class from the aforementioned three nations.

An expectant crowd lies in wait on Friday with Poland having won just one of their last nine contests, losing six times. The pressure could weigh heavy, but this is also a great chance to inject some confidence back into the side after a tough run of fixtures from the start of Euro 2024 in June up until the end of their Nations League campaign in November.

Lithuania are 142nd in the Fifa rankings and the last time Poland faced a nation outside the top 100, Estonia (123rd) last March, they blitzed their opponents 5-1, taking a 1-0 lead into half-time before winning the second half 4-1.

Friday's visitors to the PGE Narodowy lost both halves in three of their four Euro 2024 away qualifiers in 2023, suffering 2-0 defeats to Serbia, Hungary and Montenegro, and a similar outcome appears likely in Warsaw.

Anytime Goalscorer - Sebastian Szymanski (POL) @ 16/5

Lewandowski is the obvious candidate in the goalscorer markets but the real value, in my opinion, lies with Szymanski, who is 16/5 to strike anytime on Friday.

The 25-year-old has established a reputation in the last couple of seasons as a goalscoring midfielder, scoring 10 times on loan at Feyenoord in 2022/23 before completing a move to Turkish giants Fenerbahce, for whom he struck 13 times in his debut season.

He hasn't been as frequently on the scoresheet in the current campaign, netting five times in 42 appearances under Jose Mourinho, but three of those efforts have come since the start of February, the most recent two arriving in the second leg of Fener's Europa League last-16 tie at Ibrox last week as Szymanski's brace helped the visitors to a 2-0 win, only for the visitors to lose on penalties.

The former Dynamo Moscow star has been in good form for his country over the past 12 months, scoring against Estonia in Euro 2024 qualifying last March before netting against Scotland and Croatia in the Nations League last Autumn. His total of two strikes made him Poland's joint-top scorer in the competition alongside Zielinski and Zalewski, with Lewandowski only managing one in four appearances.

Poland's skipper will garner much of the attention on Friday and you can be sure he will be double marked at times in an attempt by Lithuania to limit one of this century's greatest centre-forwards.

However, in doing so, they may leave space for Szymanski, who can punish the visitors.

Offers

Acca Flex: Place a pre-match 5+ leg Football accumulator and get a CASH bonus up to 100% if all of your selections win or your money back as CASH if one leg lets you down

You can read all our latest Football Betting Tips at our dedicated Betfred Insights content hub.