Peru vs Colombia Prediction: Diaz to lead a merry dance in Lima

Peru and Colombia have made contrasting starts to their respective South American 2026 World Cup qualification campaigns, and the pair now meet each other for the first time since January 2022 when they face off in Lima on Saturday (02:30 BST).

Read on for my Peru vs Colombia prediction and all the latest team news and match odds ahead of this qualifier at the Estadio Monumental.

Team News

Peru’s Uruguayan head coach, Jorge Fossati, hasn’t called up La Bicolor’s all-time leading scorer Paolo Guerrero (Alianza Lima), nor 100-cap winger Andre Carillo (Al Qadisiya), despite the duo both featuring at the 2024 Copa America.

Fellow member of the 100-cap club, Christian Cueva, has also been overlooked amid allegations that caused Club Cienciano to sack him recently.

Captain Gianluca Lapadula (Cagliari), who has nine goals in 36 caps for Peru, is expected to lead the line on Saturday, supported by Edison Flores (Universitario), who has struck 16 times for his country.

Goalkeeper Pedro Gallese (Orlando City), defenders Luis Advincula (Boca Juniors) and Carlos Zambrano (Alianza Lima) will provide plenty of experience across the back line.

Football Odds

Colombia are missing a couple of experienced campaigners for their September qualifiers against Peru and Argentina, with goalkeeper David Ospina (Atletico Nacional) and centre-back Davinson Sanchez (Galatasaray) both injured.

Full-back Deiver Machado (Lens) has also been omitted after being substituted at half-time against Brazil in his last national team appearance, which proved to be his only outing at the 2024 Copa America. Mateus Uribe (Al Sadd), who played every game at the tournament, has also been left out alongside Miguel Broja (River Plate).

There are plenty of Premier League stars in Nestor Lorenzo’s squad including Luis Diaz (Liverpool), Luis Sinisterra (AFC Bournemouth) and Crystal Palace pair Daniel Munoz and Jefferson Lerma.

Jhon Duran (Aston Villa) will be hopeful of beginning the game following an electric start to the 2024/25 Premier League campaign, scoring twice off the bench for his club side, but he may have to settle for a substitute role again given the form fellow forward Jhon Cordoba (Krasnodar) has shown for the national team, particularly at the 2024 Copa America where he netted twice.

Peru vs Colombia Odds

*Please click on the link above to be taken to the main Peru vs Colombia page on betfred.com (or app) for all the live betting prices on this match.

Peru are 4/1 to beat Colombia for the third time in four games, having triumphed 2-1 and 1-0 in Goiania and Barranquilla respectively, either side of a 3-2 defeat in the 2021 Copa America third-place play-off in Brasilia. That gives the hosts an implied win probability of 20%, while Saturday's visitors to the capital are 8/11, or a 57.9% chance, to make it three World Cup qualifier wins on the spin.

The draw is available at 21/10, both teams to score at 6/4, and over 2.5 total goals at 7/4.

Cordoba is favourite to score anytime at 21/10, with Lapadula considered Peru's best shot of finding the net at 7/2.

Match Result & Total Goals Over/Under 2.5 - Colombia & Under 2.5 Goals @ 15/8

Colombia suffered Copa America final heartbreak in July as they lost 1-0 to Argentina after extra time, but Los Cafeteros haven't lost a game in regulation time since February 2022, a streak of 29 matches. Argentine head coach Lorenzo will be looking to do more than just avoid defeat, however, as he will want to boost Colombia's points tally by three ahead of a tough test against the country of his birth on Monday.

Colombia made a solid, if unspectacular start to their 2026 World Cup qualification campaign, opening up with a 1-0 home victory over Venezuela before goalless away stalemates in Chile and Ecuador either side of a 2-2 draw in Barranquilla against Uruguay. However, last November, they followed up a 2-1 home win against Brazil with a 1-0 triumph in Paraguay, taking Los Cafeteros to third in the South American standings ahead of the latest round of fixtures.

In contrast, Peru are yet to win a 2026 World Cup qualifier, opening up their campaign with a goalless draw away to Paraguay before being edged out by Brazil (0-1) in Lima. La Bicolor suffered away defeats to Chile and Bolivia (both 2-0), either side of a home reverse to Argentina (0-2) before ending the year with a 1-1 draw against Venezuela in the Peruvian capital.

Perhaps Peru will take inspiration from their recent record against Colombia, which stands at two wins and one defeat in the last three meetings, but it's fair to say Saturday's visitors have improved enormously since the last head-to-head in January 2022, while La Bicolor have regressed.

Peru have lost four of their six qualifiers so far, and all six of those contests ended in under 2.5 goals, while four of Colombia's six games in the competition have seen two or fewer goals, including two of their three wins.

Therefore, backing Colombia to win and there to be under 2.5 goals looks like the smart play at 15/8 on Saturday.

First Scorer - Luis Diaz @ 5/1

Duran's scintillating end to the last Premier League season, and the start he has made to the current one, gave me something to consider ahead of Colombia's trip to Lima this weekend, but I'm not convinced that the 20-year-old will be preferred to Cordoba up top, so I'm playing it a bit safer by backing Diaz to strike first on Saturday.

The Liverpool winger has made an even better start to the league campaign than Duran, following up an Anfield strike against Brentford with a brace against Manchester United at Old Trafford last Sunday, and in both of those games, he was the first scorer.

Diaz struck twice at the 2024 Copa America, netting Colombia's opener from the penalty spot in a 3-0 victory over Costa Rica in the group stage before hitting their third in a 5-0 thrashing of Panama in the quarter-finals. The 27-year-old is in terrific goalscoring form for both club and country so why not back the confident Colombian against a Peruvian side that hasn't kept a competitive clean sheet at home since March 2022?

My previous suggestion involves a maximum of two goals being scored, so I'm going for the extra value of Diaz scoring first rather than anytime on Saturday, particularly as he may not last the duration of the match with Monday's qualifier against Argentina in mind.

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