Nigeria vs Gabon Prediction: Clean sheet on the cards?

African giants Nigeria scraped through to round two of CAF qualifying by finishing as the fourth-best runner-up of the group stage, having a goal difference that was just one better than Burkina Faso below them. 

They are fortunate then to be given a second chance in the play-offs, where those four runners-up will compete for one place at the intercontinental play-offs. Below you can find my Nigeria vs Gabon predictions (16:00 GMT) featuring team news and match odds. 

Team News

Victor Osimhen should lead the line for Nigeria having recently scored a Champions League hat-trick for Galatasaray while Hull City’s Semi Ajayi could partner Fulham’s Calvin Bassey at centre-back. 

Eric Chelle has Ademola Looman back from suspension and he should start with Osimhen and Samuel Chukwueze up top. Alex Iwobi should resume a central role in midfield with Leicester City’s Wilfred Ndidi but familiar face Ola Aina is absent through injury. 

Football Odds

Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang scored all four goals for Gabon in their 4-3 win over Gambia during the last international break and will lead the line once again, with Denis Bouanga likely to offer support to the former Arsenal striker. 

Former Southampton midfielder Mario Lemina is now at Galatasaray and should feature in the middle alongside former Sunderland flop Ibrahim Ndong. He’s now at Esteghlal in Iran, while Yannis M’bemba should feature in defence given the number of injuries plaguing this Gabon outfit. 

Today's Football Fixtures

Nigeria vs Gabon Odds

Nigeria are priced as the 5/6 favourites to win this game, giving them an implied win probability of 55%. A draw is 21/10 and an away win is 18/5 for this one-legged semi-final.

Over 2.5 goals is 13/8, BTTS is 11/8 and Nigeria are priced at 7/5 to win to nil.

Double Chance - Draw or Gabon @ 10/11

This game takes place at the Prince Moulay Hassan Stadium in Rabat, Morocco, so there’s no home advantage, even though Nigeria are listed first in the fixture. That is one of several reasons why I’m happy to back against the heavy favourites here and instead side with Gabon to force extra time at the very least. 

Nigeria drew a whopping five out of their 10 qualifiers, and although they only lost once, it was those frequent draws that saw them submit top spot to South Africa. They have a lot of quality, but cohesion seemed to be an issue as they dropped points far too frequently. Meanwhile, Gabon won eight and drew one of their 10 qualifiers, only missing out by a single point to league winner Ivory Coast. 

I think this will be far closer than the odds suggest and will side with Aubameyang & Co. to avoid defeat in 90 minutes.

Gabon Clean Sheet @ 5/2

Gabon only conceded nine goals in 10 qualifiers and I believe it's that strong defence that could carry them through this qualifier. Nigeria scored 15 goals in 10 games which is okay but not amazing, especially given four of those came in one game against Benin. 

I like the look of this Benin defence so I think the price on them to secure a shut-out over 90 minutes is strong. 

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