Israel vs Italy Prediction: Goals to flow in crucial Group I clash

Israel and Italy meet at Nagyerdei Stadion in Debrecen, Hungary, on Monday (19:45 BST, Amazon Prime Video), and it’s a must-win contest for the two nations, with Norway having won all four of their World Cup 2026 qualifying matches to top the group. These two sides could well be playing for second place, and a defeat would leave the losing team in a worrying position.

The Azzurri will play just their second game under the leadership of Gennaro Gattuso, with the Italians having hammered Estonia 5-0 in the former AC Milan midfielder’s first match in charge. Below are my Israel vs Italy predictions, alongside all the latest team news.

Team News

Israel head coach Ran Ben Shimon is without midfielder Mohammad Abu Fani and winger Liel Abada, while right-back Eli Dasa is struggling for match fitness after leaving Dynamo Moscow.

Football Odds

Italy will play their second contest under the leadership of Gattuso, and the Azzurri boss is without forward Gianluca Scamacca, who withdrew from the squad with a knee problem.

Today's Football Fixtures

Mateo Retegui and Moise Kean look set to continue as Italy’s strike partnership.

Israel vs Italy Odds

Israel are 7/1, or a 12.5% chance, as the designated home team on neutral ground in Hungary, while Italy are red-hot 2/5 favourites, with the draw available at 18/5.

Goals are expected in this clash, with over 2.5 priced at 4/6 with under at 6/5, while it is 10/11 either way in the both teams to score market.

Over 3.5 goals @ 7/4

With Norway in a dominant position in Group I of the European 2026 World Cup qualifiers, Israel and Italy will be desperate for a winning result to keep tabs on the Red, White and Blue.

The need for points is especially prevalent for the Azzurri, who will be six points adrift of Israel and potentially nine behind Norway should they lose in Hungary.

The hunger for maximum points for both sides could very well lead to goals, and with Italy 2/5 chances in Hungary, Gattuso’s men are expected to go on the attack.

The Azzurri scored five goals, took 40 shots, and recorded an expected goals figure of 4.73 against Estonia on Friday, and are expected to do something similar in Hungary.

At 7/4, backing over 3.5 goals looks worth a play.

Mateo Retegui to score first @ 10/3

Retegui scored 25 Serie A goals for Atalanta last season to top the Italian scoring charts and kicked off his new campaign with two goals against Estonia on Friday night.

The 26-year-old made a big-money move to the Saudi Pro League over the summer, but that has kept him fresh for international duty, and he hit nine efforts at goal against Estonia.

While his strike partner opened the scoring on Friday, it was not for the want of trying, and as the more prolific of the two in a game his side is expected to dominate, he looks worth chancing to strike first in Hungary.

Offers

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