Iraq vs UAE Prediction: Back Iraq for first World Cup visit in 40 years

The final direct Asian qualification spot for the 2026 World Cup could not be more in the balance as Iraq get set to host the United Arab Emirates in the fifth round second leg on Tuesday in Basra (20:00 local, 16:00 GMT, live on YouTube).

A pair of early goals in Abu Dhabi saw the first contest end 1-1, teeing up what should be an absorbing decider. My Iraq vs UAE predictions follow, complete with full team news and Betfred’s latest match odds.

Team News

Luton Town loanee Ali Al-Hamadi struck the vital opener on Thursday and should get the nod to start again in attack for Iraq.

Head coach Graham Arnold decided against giving fit-again Manaf Younis the start for the first leg. The Australian may well stick with the XI which took to the field in Abu Dhabi, so the 29-year-old centre back might be left watching on again.

Cosmin Olaroiu could make the odd change to the side held at home five days ago, with Caio Lucas a potential starter having been denied by the offside late on in the first fixture.

Harib Abdalla could be the man replaced to allow Lucas back in having made way for the substitute on Thursday.

Iraq vs UAE Odds

After hanging on to achieve a draw in the first leg last week, Iraq are now the favourites to go on and win the return game in 90 minutes. They are 13/10 for the win in normal time.

You can get 5/2 about a UAE win on opposition territory, with the draw a 9/5 shot.

It’s 11/8 for both teams to score during regulation time, with 8/15 available if you believe one or neither of the sides will find the net.

World Cup Odds

Iraq to win to nil @ 2/1

Once Al-Hamadi had given them the lead on Thursday, there was always going to be only a slim chance of defeat for the Lions of Mesopotamia.

Their excellent defensive record has been a bedrock of their progression to this stage. And now they’re one positive result away from a first World Cup appearance since their one previous participation in 1986.

Under coach Arnold they have developed a strong base in their own half, with South Korea the only team to score twice past Iraq since the former Socceroos boss came in, and that was his first match in charge.

I think he’ll have them well set up to succeed here, with few chances being offered to the visitors. So the 2/1 on offer for an Iraq win and clean sheet at an implied 33.3% probability looks to be generous.

Today's Football Fixtures

Under 1.5 goals @ 6/5

Even after two early goals last week, there was a clear edginess about both teams in the final third.

Many of the better-looking chances in that first leg actually came from distance, with the closer efforts often being foiled by poor technique rather than desperate defending.

And I can see that quality issue being a problem here too.

Two sides lacking a real cutting edge but confident in their ability to keep other teams out could end up serving up a tight affair, and I would be shocked to see more than a single goal. The 6/5 available here looks good to me.

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