Iceland vs Azerbaijan Prediction: Ice, Ice, Maybe?

Incredibly, there are 5232.7 kilometres between the capital of Azerbaijan, Baku and the capital of Iceland, Reykjavik. A direct flight, not that there is one, would take 10 hours and 30 minutes, while making the journey today would see you change in Istanbul and London before heading north to the island nation. 

Anyway, these two are both in Uefa’s jurisdiction, and they meet in Group D of World Cup qualifying on Friday (19:45 BST). Below you can find my Iceland vs Azerbaijan predictions featuring team news and betting tips. 

Team News

Arnor Sigurdsson is out for the hosts alog with Johann Berg Gudmundsson, who remains stuck on 99 caps. Hordor Mgnusson is currently clubless so remains out of the squad, along with Arnor Ingvi Traustason. 

It means there’s a fresher look to this Iceland squad with Albert Gudmundsson likely to be a key player this international break. Orri Oskasrsson, Hakon Arnar Haraldsson and Andri Gudjohnsen bring youthful exuberance and quality, and have now established themselves in the first term. 

Football Odds

Azerbaijan will hope to arrest their poor form but manager Fernando Santos, who won the Euro 2016 with Portugual, doesn’t have a deep pool of players to choose from. As a result the squad is relatively unchanged, with only five members playing their football outside Azerbaijan. 

Ozan Kokcu is currently plying his trade for Volendam in the Netherlands, with Mahir Emreli now at FC Kaiserslautern in the 2. Bundesliga. Midfielder Emin Mahmudov is the top goalscorer in the squad with 14 international goals to his name. 

Today's Football Fixtures

Iceland vs Azerbaijan Odds

Iceland are priced as the 4/9 favourites to win this game, giving them an implied win probability of 69%. Azerbaijan are the 6/1 underdogs while a draw can be backed at 10/3. 

Over 2.5 goals is 4/5, BTTS is 1/1 and Gudjohnsen is the favourite to score first at 5/1. 

Iceland to win to nil @ 13/10

Next year will mark 10 years since Iceland beat England at Euro 2016, while the mid-to-late 2010s marked an era of unprecedented success as they also qualified for the World Cup and drew with Lionel Messi’s Argentina. 

However, since the turn of the 2020s, it’s been a rough ride for Iceland. They were in League A of the Nations League but have since suffered two relegations which just sums up how poor they’ve been in recent times. Kosovo hammered them 5-2 on aggregate to seal their relegation to League C, but despite all of this, I am going to back them to win to nil against a woeful Azerbaijan outfit. 

Azerbaijan haven’t won a competitive football match since 2023, when they landed a shock 3-0 win over Sweden. However, since then they have been beaten twice by Sweden as they exacted their revenge with a 6-0 thrashing, while their most recent Nations League campaign saw them relegation to League D after amassing just one point from six outings. 

Santos has been unable to improve them with eight defeats and two draws in their last 10 matches, including home defeats against the likes of Haiti (0-3) and Belarus (0-2). Azerbaijan are one of the worst teams in Europe right now, and I don’t think they will get anything away at Iceland - not even a goal.

Scorecast - Andri Gudjohnsen to score first, 2-0 Iceland @ 28/1

Iceland should be able to find a comfortable home success in this game, so I think a 2-0 scoreline makes the most sense given they are likely to keep a clean sheet, but unlikely to put Azerbaijan to the sword. 

To make this bet a little more exotic, I’ll also back Gudjohnsen to score first. Son of Eidur, this summer he joined Blackburn Rovers from Genk, and given he has scored nine goals in 34 international appearances, he looks to have his dad’s eye for goal. He can take on the goalscoring responsibility here, and find the net first.

Offers

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