Georgia vs Spain Prediction: Back Espana to win a low-scoring match

Spain still have an 100% record in World Cup Qualifying and are yet to even let in a goal through four matches. 15 scored, none conceded. That isn't too bad of a record I suppose. They face Georgia on the road on Saturday afternoon (Amazon Prime PPV, 17:00) and are looking to secure their spot at World Cup 2026.

You can check out Mark's full preview below with Team News, Key Odds, Predicted Lineups and his Two Best Bets. So let's check out his Georgia vs Spain Predictions...

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Match Preview:

Despite winning all their games so far in Group E of World Cup qualifying, Spain still have work to do in order to secure their place at next summer's tournament. They take on Georgia in Tbilisi in their latest match on Saturday.  

The build-up to this encounter from a Spanish perspective has been dominated by a club-vs-country row involving Lamine Yamal. The teenager, who didn't feature for La Roja during the October international break either, was initially called up to the squad, and briefly reported for duty.  

However, it later emerged that he had undergone minor groin surgery on Monday, with Barcelona's medical team recommending a period of seven days' rest. Spain boss Luis de la Fuente has criticised the Catalan club's handling of the affair, and he'll again need to cope without his star winger as a result.  

The absence of Yamal didn't do any major harm in October. Spain still brushed aside Georgia 2-0 and Bulgaria 4-0 in dominant performances. There is real depth to their squad, with even the absence of 2024 Ballon d'Or winner Rodri not really being felt.  

Arsenal duo Martín Zubimendi and Mikel Merino have established themselves as fixtures in the midfield, while their former Real Sociedad teammate Mikel Oyarzabal is now clearly the first-choice striker. They've been a level above the other sides in this group, winning four out of four so far, with 16 goals scored and none conceded.  

A victory here would all but mathematically seal Spain's place at the World Cup. However, they're still most likely going to need to wait until Tuesday's clash with Turkey to fully finish the job.  

As for Georgia, they can no longer win the group, and they'll be out of contention for the play-off place assuming the Turks avoid defeat at home to Bulgaria, regardless of the result of this match. Their attention will soon turn to again trying to qualify for the Euros.  

They are still largely paying the price for a bad first hour in their opening game, when they fell 3-0 down at home to Turkey. Willy Sagnol's side nearly fought back to draw that match, and they were comfortable 3-0 winners at home to Bulgaria three days later.  

However, away losses against Turkey and Spain in October mean they're still only on three points. While they were only beaten by a two-goal margin by La Roja in Elche, the gulf in quality was evident throughout. Georgia only had one shot in that game, with their talented forwards Khvicha Kvaratskhelia and Georges Mikautadze frustrated figures in attack for most of the contest. 

With home advantage this weekend, they'll be hoping to have more of the play. These sides are not exactly strangers to one another, with this already the seventh meeting in the 2020s. Spain have won all of the previous six, and that includes a 7-1 victory on their most recent trip to Georgia for a Euro 2024 qualifier two years ago. 

Team News: 

Villarreal striker Mikautadze is a major injury absentee for the hosts. Otar Kakabadze, Gabriel Sigua and Nika Gagnidze have also pulled out of the squad with fitness issues. 

In addition, they'll have to cope without midfielder Giorgi Kochorashvili, who is suspended after picking up a second yellow card of the campaign in a 4-1 defeat to Turkey last time out. It'll therefore be a depleted Georgian side that takes to the field against the reigning European champions. 

Spain have plenty of notable absentees too. Aside from Yamal and Rodri, Nico Williams and Pedri have also been dealing with fitness issues and will play no part in this international break. The same goes for defenders Dani Carvajal and Robin Le Normand, two other regulars in their Euros-winning side. 

The likes of Yéremy Pino and Ferran Torres are in contention for starting roles in attack. Meanwhile, Fabián Ruiz is fit again and may take Pedri's place in midfield. 

*For all of our World Cup Odds and Betting Markets - please head on over to that section on betfred.com

Match Odds: 

Spain are priced at 2/9 to win the game and maintain their 100% record in this group. You can back the Draw at 11/2, while Georgia are on offer at 12/1 to cause a famous upset. 

Both teams to score is priced at 1/1, while you can back Over 3.5 goals at 5/4. If you're expecting the visitors to boss the game, Spain are priced at 10/11 to score over 2.5 goals, while you can back them to win both halves at 11/8. 

Alternatively, Georgia can be backed with a +2.00 Handicap at 23/20. The hosts are also on offer at 10/11 to score over 0.5 goals. 

Oyarzabal looks certain to start for Spain in attack. He has already chipped in with three goals and three assists in this group, and you can back the 28-year-old to score first at 7/2, while he's priced at 1/1 to score anytime. 

From a home perspective, Kvaratskhelia is the undisputed star, and his goal return of 20 from 45 international appearances is a very healthy one. The PSG man is available at 11/1 to score first and 7/2 to score anytime. 

*You can check out all of our Georgia vs Spain Odds on our betting market over on betfred.com

Bet 1 - Spain to win & Under 3.5 goals @ 11/10 

Spain had 83% of the ball in the reverse fixture. Centre-back Pau Cubarsí completed 123 passes in that match, which was more than the entire Georgian team. That may offer a clue as to how this latest encounter is likely to pan out, with the hosts potentially going with a back five and a counter-attacking approach again. 

The visitors should certainly dominate in the possession stakes once more, but they're not quite as threatening in the final third without Yamal and Williams. That offers Georgia a glimmer of hope, but the absences of Mikautadze and Kochorashvili will leave them even more dependent on the brilliance of Kvaratskhelia. 

It's hard to see him doing it all on his own against such strong opposition, and I'm backing Spain to win and Under 3.5 goals at 11/10. 

Bet 2 - Mikel Merino to score anytime @ 6/4 

One of the stories of the last 12 months from a Spanish perspective has been Mikel Merino. The Arsenal midfielder had only scored two international goals before this calendar year, but he has netted eight times in eight appearances for his country in 2025. 

Merino has six goals in this World Cup qualifying campaign alone, including a hat-trick in Turkey, and a goal against Bulgaria, in Spain's other away matches. He's averaging 4.8 shots per game, which highlights how much freedom he has been given by De la Fuente to make runs into the penalty area and get on the end of crosses. 

The 29-year-old has also shown at club level in the Premier League that he is a good finisher, stepping up as an emergency striker on a number of occasions for Arsenal. Merino looks to offer value at 6/4 to score anytime here. 

Mark Sochon P/L 25/26 Season:

• Points Staked: 83
• Points Returned: 84.80
• P/L: +1.8

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