Benfica vs Chelsea Prediction: Otamendi to trouble Blues’ back line

Benfica and Chelsea meet on Saturday (21:00 BST, DAZN/Betfred) for the first time since the 2013 Uefa Europa League Final, which was won 2-1 by the Blues. This time, they face off in the last 16 of the 2025 Fifa Club World Cup, with the Portuguese side winning Group C ahead of Bayern Munich, and the English outfit serving as runners-up to Flamengo in Group D.

Below are my Benfica vs Chelsea predictions, supported by all the latest team news and match odds, ahead of this knockout game at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, North Carolina.

Team News

Benfica midfielder Florentino Luis has missed his side's last two games with a shoulder injury sustained in the 2-2 draw with Boca Juniors on June 16, and the 25-year-old looks set to sit out Saturday's contest, too.

However, Italian striker Andrea Belotti is back available after serving a two-game suspension for a red card received in the Aguilas' Club World Cup opener. The Como loanee is unlikely to start, though, with Vangelis Pavlidis preferred up top.

Football Odds

Renato Sanches and Leandro Barreira started as Benfica's midfield two in their 1-0 win over Bayern on Tuesday, impressing against the German giants. Head coach Bruno Lage must now decide whether to stick with that midfield pairing or bring Orkun Kokcu in for one of them.

Andreas Schjelderup impressed in his first start of the competition against Bayern, scoring the only goal of the game in the Group C decider, and the 21-year-old Norwegian winger may have done enough to keep his spot on the left ahead of Bruma and Kerem Akturkoglu.

Chelsea remain without suspended striker Nicolas Jackson, who will be back from his two-game ban for the quarter-finals, if the Blues make it there. In his absence, Liam Delap will continue to lead the line.

Enzo Maresca made wholesale changes in his side's final Group D game against ES Tunis on Wednesday, with only Delap, Malo Gusto and Enzo Fernandez keeping their starting spots from the 2-0 defeat to Flamengo five days earlier.

We can expect a line-up more akin to that loss to the Brazilians on Saturday, though, with Robert Sanchez, Marc Cucurella, Levi Colwill, Moises Caicedo, Cole Palmer and Pedro Neto all set to return from the off.

Benfica vs Chelsea Odds

Benfica are unbeaten at this year's Club World Cup, but the Portuguese side are underdogs to progress from Saturday's last-16 tie. The Aguilas are 13/5, or a 27.8% chance, to triumph in regulation time against Chelsea, and 11/8 to win the tie by any means. The English outfit, meanwhile, are 23/20 to win in 90 minutes, implying a 46.5% probability of success.

The draw, which would send the tie to extra time, is priced at 12/5, both teams to score (90 mins) at 4/5, and over 2.5 total goals (90 mins) at 1/1.

Delap (7/4) and Pavlidis (2/1) lead the anytime goalscorer market, with Cole Palmer (21/10) just behind the duo, and the evergreen Angel Di Maria (4/1) further down the list.

Player to Receive a Card - Enzo Fernandez (CHE) @ 3/1

This will be Fernandez's first appearance against his former club since joining Chelsea for a British-record transfer fee worth £106.8m in February 2023.

The Argentina international had only been at the Primeira Liga powerhouses for just over seven months, but was snapped up by the Blues following his performances at the 2022 Fifa World Cup in Qatar, where he was named Best Young Player.

Fernandez hasn't been shy to stick his foot in since moving to west London, picking up 23 yellow cards for Chelsea, including nine this season - eight in the Premier League, one in the Uefa Conference League.

Today's Football Fixtures

The 24-year-old averaged 1.4 fouls per game in the English top flight this term and has committed an offence in both of his starts at the 2025 Club World Cup, although he has managed to evade a booking so far.

I don't see him escaping another match without punishment, though, with one of his likely midfield opponents on Saturday, Sanches, winning seven fouls across his two tournament starts so far - five against Boca Juniors, and two against Bayern. Furthermore, his potential midfield partner in Charlotte, Barreiro, has been fouled twice in each of his two starts.

The ability of Sanches and Barreiro to win free-kicks for their side, as well as it maybe being an emotionally-charged occasion for Fernandez, could result in the Blues star picking up a card at Bank of America Stadium.

Player to Have 1 or More Shots on Target - Nicolas Otamendi (BEN) @ 11/5

Benfica defender Nicolas Otamendi failed to record a shot in his side's win against Bayern earlier this week, but that was heavily influenced by Schjelderup's 13th-minute strike, which turned out to be the winner. After that goal, it was pretty much all Bayern, and Lage's side only managed to win one more corner.

The 37-year-old shot twice in his first two appearances at this tournament, though, scoring with his second effort against Boca Juniors and forcing a save with the first of his two attempts against Auckland City.

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Otamendi averaged 0.4 shots on target per game in the 2024/25 Primeira Liga, scoring six goals, and registered two shots on target in four Uefa Champions League knockout outings, scoring in his last match against Barcelona.

Chelsea have already been exposed from a corner once at this year's Club World Cup, with Flamengo centre-back Danilo converting from close range after a header across goal by Bruno Henrique, and the Brazilian's defensive partner in that game, Leo Pereira, saw a header from a corner saved by Sanchez just before half-time.

The Blues also conceded a headed shot to ES Tunis centre-back Mohamed Tougai on Wednesday, and in their opening match, allowed LAFC centre-half Eddie Segure to register a shot on target with a long-distance strike.

Otamendi, therefore, looks like the best bet for a fourth centre-back shot on target against Chelsea in as many games.

Offers

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