Fenerbahce vs Lyon Prediction: Another Mourinho masterclass in Europe

Jose Mourinho's Fenerbahce side have endured a topsy-turvy Europa League campaign so far, winning twice, drawing twice, and losing twice to pick up eight points from their first six league phase games. Lyon, on the other hand, have been one of the competition's most impressive performers, claiming four victories and suffering just a single defeat to sit fourth heading into Thursday's clash against the Turkish giants at the Sukru Saracoglu Stadium (17:45, TNT Sports 5).

Read on for my Fenerbahce vs Lyon prediction, complete with all the latest team news and match odds, ahead of this matchday seven contest in Istanbul.

Team News

Fenerbahce full-back Mert Muldur is suspended following his red card in last month's 2-0 defeat to Athletic Club in Istanbul, so expect former Queens Park Rangers winger Bright Osayi-Samuel, who came on at half-time in his side's 4-0 Super Lig win at Adana Demirspor pm Sunday, to start at right-back.

First-choice goalkeeper Dominik Livakovic, who has sat out four of Fenerbahce's last five games including Sunday's victory, is doubtful with a thigh injury, meaning Irfan Egribayat could make his Europa League debut on Wednesday.

Brazilian midfielder Lincoln has returned from his loan spell at RB Bragantino, but he is currently injured, unregistered and expected to leave the club in January, probably on a permanent deal this time.

Defenders Jayden Oosterwolde and Rodrigo Becao (both knee) remain long-term absentees for the Yellow Canaries, who have agreed a deal in principle to sign Paris Saint-Germain centre-back Milan Skriniar, according to Fabrizio Romano.

Football Odds

Lyon captain Alexandre Lacazette missed his side's goalless draw with Toulouse with a muscle injury and is a major doubt for Thursday's trip to Istanbul, although he has been named in the squad, while Argentine left-back Nicolas Tagliafico will serve a one-game ban for an accumulation of yellow cards in the competition.

Transfer speculation continues to swirl around the futures of several Lyon players including Rayan Cherki and Ernest Nuamah, but both featured on the weekend and the duo are in contention to play in midweek.

Argentine playmaker Thiago Almada, who joined the club on loan from Brazilian sister club Botafogo earlier this month and was in the matchday squad on Saturday, hasn't made the trip to Turkey as he isn't registered to play in Europe.

Fenerbahce vs Lyon Odds

Fenerbahce have won their last four games in all competitions and are 23/20, or a 46.5% chance, to claim a first Europa League victory at home since MD1 when they beat Union Saint-Gilloise 2-1. Lyon, meanwhile, have failed to win any of their last three matches, piling the pressure on head coach Pierre Sage, and are 21/10 (32.3%) to stay unbeaten on their European travels and pick up a third success in four league phase away games.

The draw is priced at 11/4, both teams to score at 1/2, and over 2.5 total goals at 8/15.

Fenerbahce forwards Youssef En-Nesyri (7/5) and Edin Dzeko (6/4) head the anytime goalscorer market, followed by Lyon pair Lacazette (13/8) and Georges Mikautadze (15/8).

Match Result & Total Goals Over/Under 3.5 - Fenerbahce & Under 3.5 Goals @ 23/10

Lyon have performed impressively in Europe this season, losing just one of their first six Europa League phase games, and they aren't going too badly in Ligue 1 as they sit fifth after 18 played, just three points behind third-placed Lille. However, after beating Montpellier 1-0 on January 4, they've failed to win their last three games, losing 2-1 to Brest and drawing with Toulouse either side of a penalty shoot-out defeat to fifth-tier Bourgoin Jallieu in the Coupe de France round of 32.

Sage's future is reportedly hanging in the balance and the potential dual absence of two key players in Tagliafico and Lacazette on Thursday will hinder his side's chances of attaining a positive result in Istanbul.

Mourinho, meanwhile, has overseen four consecutive wins this year and his side are now unbeaten in their last six games. Their last defeat, though, came in the Europa League, and there will be huge pressure on them to win on Thursday given their precarious position in the league phase table. Anything but three points will leave them at serious risk of dropping out of the top 24 and at the mercy of other results on matchday eight next week.

Fenerbahce's bigwigs are paying Mourinho the big money for a reason, though, and that's because the Portuguese has a reputation that precedes him. European nights and cup ties are said to be the Portuguese manager's forte and at home, he will back his charges to come through and claim victory on Thursday.

Lyon's wobbles of late should further bolster the home side's confidence and while Lyon will point to their unbeaten home record in Europe this season, it's fair to suggest that this will be their toughest test on their travels. Les Gones have gone away to Rangers and Qarabag and won 4-1 in both Scotland and Azerbaijan, while they also drew 2-2 with Hoffenheim in Germany. However, while Rangers are doing well in the Europa League, the Glasgow giants are 13 points behind Celtic in their domestic league, while Hoffenheim are battling to avoid relegation in the Bundesliga.

Fener lost to Athletic Club last time out in the Europa League but I rate the La Liga side above Lyon and that defeat is just one of two losses at home this season, the other being to bitter rivals Galatasaray (1-3) in the Super Lig on September 21.

A victory for Fener it is for me, but to boost the odds further, I'm adding in under 3.5 total goals which has landed in 83.3 per cent (five) of their six league phase matches and 33.3 per cent (two) of Lyon's.

Booking Points - 80+ @ 3/1

Fenerbahce have been involved in some feisty old matches in Europe this season, particularly in their last three games. The Turkish side were responsible for six of the eight yellow cards shown in their 3-1 defeat to AZ Alkmaar on November 7, and with Betfred awarding 10 points for a caution, a total of 80 booking points were dished out in the Netherlands.

Three weeks later in Prague, where Fener beat Slavia Prague 2-1, there were 100 booking points awarded with the visitors responsible for six of the 10 yellows given. Then, last time out against Athletic Club in Istanbul, Muldur's red card for two bookable offences racked up 35 booking points alone and combined with the four other yellows shown in the game, saw a total of 75 booking points awarded.

There were 60 booking points in Fener's 1-1 draw with FC Twente on October 3 with Mourinho's men accounting for four of the six yellows dished out while in their league phase opener against USG in Istanbul on September 26, both sides received a red - Osayi-Samuel for two yellows, and Kevin Mac Allister a straight one for a last-man foul. In total, 100 booking points were given.

So, that means 80+ booking points has landed in half (three) of Fener's six league phase contests, with one - against Athletic Club - falling narrowly short.

Lyon, meanwhile, have seen 33.3 per cent (two) of their European games finish with at least 80 booking points including their last one, a 3-2 victory over Eintracht Frankfurt on December 12 when five of the 12 yellows (120 booking points) were brandished in their direction. Interestingly, their only match against Turkish opposition this season, a 1-0 defeat at home to Besiktas on October 24, saw exactly 80 booking points as they were responsible for two of the eight yellow cards shown by the referee.

With qualification firmly on the line for these sides and just one match remaining after Thursday, there's plenty at stake between these two teams in Istanbul, and that could lead things to spill over, so 3/1 for 80+ booking points looks tasty.

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