Fenerbahce vs Anderlecht Prediction: Belgians to avoid defeat against injury-hit hosts

A 2-2 draw away to Midtjylland on the final night of the Uefa Europa League league phase saw Fenerbahce sneak into the knockout phase play-offs as the 24th-placed team on account of a slightly superior goal difference to Braga (25th). The Turkish giants' reward is a two-legged tie with Belgian side Anderlecht, who finished 10th, four points ahead of Jose Mourinho's men.

Below are my Fenerbahce vs Anderlecht predictions, supported by all the latest team news and match odds, ahead of this first leg at the Sukru Saracoglu Stadium in Istanbul (17:45, TNT Sports 3).

Team News

Fenerbahce's squad has been decimated by injuries in recent weeks, particularly in defence, and as many as 14 players are potentially unavailable for Thursday's game.

First-choice goalkeeper Dominik Livakovic (thigh), defenders Mert Muldur (shoulder), Alexander Dijku, Caglar Soyuncu (both muscle), Rodrigo Becao, Jayden Oosterwolde, Yusu Akcicek (all knee) and Diego Carlos (unspecified), are all out injured, as is midfielder Ismail Yuksek (muscle).

Meanwhile, Serdar Aziz, Oguz Aydin, Burak Kapacak, Levent Mercan and Ongjen Mimovic are all ineligible as they haven't been named in Fenerbahce's European list.

Youssef En Nesyri was banned for Sunday's 2-0 win at Alanyaspor but is free to return to action on Thursday. The Moroccan striker may rejoin Edin Dzeko in attack, meaning either Anderson Talisca or Dusan Tadic could drop down to the bench.

Football Odds

Southampton loanee Samuel Edozie has missed Anderlecht's last seven games with a muscle injury and the 22-year-old will make it an eighth in Istanbul.

Former Tottenham Hotspur defender Jan Vertonghen, who has featured just twice for Les Mauve et Blanc this season, is out with an ankle problem.

Moussa N'Diaye was suspended for Anderlecht's 2-0 victory over Antwerp on Sunday but is back available for selection this week.

Fenerbahce vs Anderlecht Odds

Fenerbahce has won five of their last six games at the Sukru Saracoglu Stadium, drawing the other, although that was to Lyon (0-0) in the Europa League last month, and the Yellow Canaries only emerged victorious from one of their league phase games at home, their opener against Union Saint-Gilloise in September.

Thursday's hosts are 1/2, implying a 66.7% chance of success, to take a lead into next week's second leg, while Anderlecht are 11/2, or a 15.4% chance, to return to Belgium with the advantage.

The draw is priced at 100/30, both teams to score at 4/5, and over 2.5 total goals at 4/6.

En Nesyri and Dzeko (both 4/1) are shortest priced in the first goalscorer market, with the former 23/20 favourite to score anytime and the latter second at 13/10. Kasper Dolberg, Anderlecht's top scorer this season, is considered most likely to net anytime for the visitors at 13/5.

Double Chance - Draw or Anderlecht @ 6/4

Backing against Mourinho at home in European competition - it doesn't really feel right, does it?

Well, there comes a point where the head has to overrule heart or nostalgia, and the facts are that Mourinho has won just two of his six European games at home as Fenerbahce boss. One of those victories was against Swiss side Lugano in the second qualifying round of the Champions League, and the Turkish giants only scraped a 2-1 win via a strike from Sebastian Szymanski in the third minute of second-half stoppage time, albeit Fener were already heading through on aggregate.

In the third qualifying round, they took the tie to extra time in Istanbul after Lille defender Bafode Diakite put through his own net, again in second-half stoppage time, but Les Dogues equalised in the 118th minute and advanced to the league phase of the competition.

Fenerbahce started their Europa League campaign with victory over USG but proceeded to draw to an out-of-sorts Manchester United (1-1) and Lyon (0-0) either side of a 2-0 defeat to Athletic Club. In fact, Mourinho's side won just two of their eight league phase matches, and none of their last three, so I'm starting to question the Portuguese manager's credentials in Europe.

He's not helped by a spate of injuries, and that could lend a significant helping hand to Anderlecht on Thursday, who will be smelling blood.

I'm loath to fully back against Fener but Anderlecht do provide value on the double chance result.

The Belgians lost their final two league phase games but qualification to the play-offs had already been assured after six matches unbeaten in the competition and they won two of their first three away games, beating Real Sociedad (1-2) and Slavia Prague (1-2) either side of a 1-1 draw at RFS.

I think the visitors can frustrate their hosts on Thursday and at least avoid defeat in Istanbul.

Team With Most Booking Points - Fenerbahce @ 23/20

Ordinarily, I wouldn't side with the home side in the first leg, but Fener have been accruing cards at a rapid rate in the Europa League this season; in fact, they have picked up at least four more yellows cards (36) than any other side in the competition, and only Braga (three) have received more reds.

Anderlecht, meanwhile, are joint-27th in the yellow card rankings, after being shown 15 yellows and one red in the league phase.

David Hubert's charges didn't receive a single card in either of their Europa League matches this calendar year and will hope to keep their cool again on Thursday.

Offers

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