Chelsea vs Morecambe Prediction: Big win expected for hosts

Chelsea will be looking to book their spot in the fourth round of the FA Cup when they host Morecambe at Stamford Bridge on Saturday afternoon (15:00). 

The Shrimps have made their way past Worthing and Bradford City to reach the third round for the second successive year, but a trip to the capital could be a step too far for the League 2 side. Read on for my Chelsea vs Morecambe prediction, as well as the latest team news and match odds.

Football Odds

Team News

Enzo Maresca is expected to make a host of changes to his starting XI, as he does in the Uefa Conference League, so a number of fringe players could be handed a start here.

Wesley Fofana is out of contention for Chelsea alongside the likes Mykhaylo Mudryk, Omari Kellyman, Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall and Benoit Badiashile, while Carney Chukwuemeka and Romeo Lavia are both doubts.

As for the visitors, Derek Adams will be tempted to stick with the same side that beat Tranmere Rovers last time out.

That would see Harry Burgoyne start between the sticks, Liverpool loanee Rhys Williams and Jamie Stott making up the central defence, with Marcus Dackers leading the line.

Chelsea vs Morecambe Odds

Unsurprisingly, Chelsea are huge favourites for this match and are 1/40 to win in 90 minutes, giving them an implied win probability of 97.6%. The draw is 16/1 and a famous Morecambe victory is priced up at 50/1.

The Blues are 1/200 to win the tie, and it's 40/1 for Morecambe to book their place in the next round. Cole Palmer tops the anytime goalscorer market at 4/11, while Ben Tollitt is the shortest-priced for the Shrimps at 11/2.

Chelsea -3 @ 8/11

Chelsea were FA Cup runners-up back in 2020/21, losing to Leicester City, but their run to Wembley started with a 4-0 thumping of Morecambe at Stamford Bridge, and I'd be surprised if we saw anything different this weekend.

Maresca is unlikely to field a team of stars on Saturday, but the Blues boss has an incredibly deep squad at his disposal, as shown by their performances in the Conference League, and his fringe players should still have too much quality for the Shrimps.

Eighty-six league positions separate these sides, with Morecambe currently languishing in 23rd place in League 2, and they haven't played any football since their victory over Tranmere on New Year's Day - their match against Newport County was postponed due to a frozen pitch.

The visitors have lost five of their last seven games without scoring, but this weekend's trip to the capital brings a welcomed break from league proceedings, and the chance to produce a giant killing. However, we've seen the damage the Blues can do against inferior opposition - they hammered Barrow 5-0 at home in September in the Carabao Cup and have scored 26 goals in six Conference League group games.

Three of Chelsea's four home cup games this term have been won by three goals or more, so I'm expecting a big win for the Blues on Saturday.

First Goal Time - 11-20 @ 5/2

As expected given the disparity between the sides, there's not a great deal of value when looking at this fixture., so I've opted for the first goal to be scored between the 11th and 20th minute.

The 2021 meeting between the pair at Stamford Bridge saw the opening goal scored in the 18th minute by Mason Mount, and I believe the Blues will be quick out of the blocks on Saturday, even with a weakened team.

Twenty-two first-half goals have been scored in Chelsea’s eight games across the Conference League group stage and the Carabao Cup this season, so another fast start is expected here.

Offers

Acca Flex: Place a pre-match 5+ leg Football accumulator and get a CASH bonus up to 100% if all of your selections win or your money back as CASH if one leg lets you down

Place an In-Play single bet of £10 or more at odds of 1/2+ on any FA Cup game on Saturday and get £5 in Free Bets to use In-Play on Sunday’s FA Cup games. (Credited upon Bet Settlement)