Everton vs Aston Villa Prediction: Moyes to get Goodison going again

David Moyes makes his return to the home dugout at Goodison Park on Wednesday (19:30, TNT Sports 2) as the new Everton manager, in his second spell as Toffees boss, prepares his side for the visit of Aston Villa who won the reverse fixture 3-2 in September.

Below is my Everton vs Aston Villa prediction, complete with all the latest team news and match odds, ahead of this midweek Premier League fixture on Merseyside.

Team News

Moyes is hopeful of having Dominic Calvert-Lewin and Seamus Coleman available for selection for the first game of his second spell in charge of Everton.

However, the 61-year-old, who left West Ham United at the end of last season, won't be able to call upon Dwight McNeil, Armando Broja, Tim Iroegbunam or Youssef Chermiti, while it might be too soon for James Garner, who took part in training on Monday, to make his return from injury.

Football Odds

Pau Torres, John McGinn and Ross Barkley are all out injured for Aston Villa while Diego Carlos and Jaden Philogene, neither of whom have featured in a matchday squad in 2025, are reportedly on their way out of Villa Park and look unlikely to be involved on Wednesday.

Jhon Duran is back available, however, after serving a three-game ban for violent conduct. He could replace Ollie Watkins, who has scored just one non-penalty goal in his last 17 club appearances, in attack.

Everton vs Aston Villa Odds

Everton are 9/4 to welcome Moyes back with a win on Wednesday, giving the Toffees an implied probability of 30.8%, while Aston Villa are 13/10, or a 43.5% chance, to make it three out of three victories this calendar year.

The sides played out a goalless draw in the corresponding fixture last season and it's 23/10 for another draw here.

Match Result - Everton @ 9/4

Am I lazy for suggesting Everton could be the latest beneficiary of the ‘new manager bounce’? Well, Aston Villa avoided that curse last Friday as they beat West Ham 2-1 in Graham Potter's first game in charge of the Irons, but they were 1-0 behind at home in that FA Cup third-round tie and failed to take a single shot in the first half. The Villans were a different beast in the second half and came out on top but they're hardly the Villa of last season and were also unconvincing 2-1 winners against Leicester City last time out in the Premier League, a result that followed a 3-0 Boxing Day defeat to Newcastle United and a 2-2 draw with Brighton.

Villa have lost their last five Premier League away games by an aggregate of 14-2 and now take a trip to Goodison Park where Everton have lost just once (in regulation time) since suffering a 3-2 defeat to Bournemouth on August 31, a match in which they were leading 2-0 until the 87th minute. Granted, four of their seven home contests since in the league have ended in a stalemate, but they were all under previous boss Sean Dyche, and they still managed to beat Crystal Palace 2-1 and Wolves 4-0 under him.

Moyes should receive a rapturous welcome on Wednesday and the positivity at Goodison Park - a rare feeling there in recent years - should spur the hosts on to victory. The visitors are also missing a few key players in Torres, McGinn and Barkley, while Duran hasn't played for nearly two weeks now, so Unai Emery's side aren't at full strength.

If you need any more convincing, how about taking a look at Moyes' recent record against Villa? The Villans have won only one of their last 16 Premier League games against teams managed by Moyes (D7, L8), who knows how to make teams solid and difficult to penetrate.

Bet Builder - Iliman Ndiaye (EVE) 1+ Shots on Target, Morgan Rogers (AVL) 1+ Shots on Target, Idrissa Gana Gueye (EVE) 2+ Fouls, Matty Cash (AVL) 2+ Fouls @ 11/1

Former Sheffield United star Iliman Ndiaye, a summer arrival from Olympique Marseille, has been a rare bright spark for Everton in a dismal season so far. The Senegal international has only scored three times in 19 Premier League appearances (17 starts) but has also struck once in both the Carabao Cup and FA Cup and has impressed with his overall performance, receiving the ball in tight areas and running at defenders.

Ndiaye is averaging 0.4 shots on target per Premier League game in 2024/25, but after netting twice in his last four games (in all competitions) and with a new energy around the stadium following Moyes's appointment as Dyche's successor, I think the 24-year-old will at least test Emiliano Martinez in the Villans' net.

I'm also backing another ex-Championship star, Morgan Rogers, to register a shot on target at Goodison Park. Like Ndiaye, the former Middlesbrough man has scored in back-to-back games, striking in a 2-2 Premier League draw against Brighton on December 30 before missing the 2-1 win over Leicester City through suspension and netting the winner on his return in last Friday's FA Cup victory over West Ham.

Rogers also struck against Manchester City last month meaning he has three goals in his last four matches and six for the season in the Premier League. While his shots on target per game average sits at 0.5, it's important to remember the form he is in, and three shots on target in September's reverse fixture also piques my interest.

Moving on to fouls, ex-Villa midfielder Idrissa Gana Gueye is a solid shout to commit at least two on Wednesday. The 35-year-old is averaging 1.6 fouls per game in the Premier League this season and made two in just 64 minutes at Villa Park before being taken off, while in his last appearance against Villa at Goodison Park, in February 2023, he unfairly upended an opponent three times.

Completing this Bet Builder is Villa right-back Matty Cash who is averaging 1.2 fouls per game in the competition but had made at least two in his last four appearances - three of them in the Premier League and the latest in the FA Cup. The 27-year-old's direct opponent is likely to be Ndiaye who is fouled, on average, 1.6 times per game (four last time out in the Premier League at Bournemouth).

Offers

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