Roma vs Midtjylland Prediction: Go with 7/2 bet for duel-heavy draw

Serie A leaders Roma go in search of a first home win in this season’s Europa League on Thursday when they host table-topping Midtjylland at the Stadio Olimpico (18:45 local, 17:45 GMT, TNT Sports 7).

The Lupi went to the summit of the domestic league on Sunday but need to improve on the continent after defeats to Lille and Viktoria Plzen on home soil. Read on for my Roma vs Midtjylland predictions, complete with latest team news and Betfred’s match odds.

Team News

While Matias Soule was a scorer as a prima punta on Sunday, he will likely revert back from the unfamiliar number-nine position into a supporting role for Evan Ferguson, who came off the bench in Cremona to score his first Roma goal.

Kostas Tsimikas, Mario Hermoso and Neil El Aynaoui could also step up for starts, with Gianluca Mancini, Jan Ziolkowski, Manu Kone and Tommaso Baldanzi projected to make way.

The visitors arrive in the Eternal City having surrendered top spot in the Danish Superliga on Sunday by losing 2-1 at Sonderjyske.

Ousmane Diao looks primed for a recall in defence, with teenage winger Mikel Gogorza also potentially getting a promotion to the starting XI.

Those changes could come at the expense of Martin Erlic and Aral Simsir.

Roma vs Midtjylland Odds

Gian Piero Gasperini’s side are backed for the win as 1/2 favourites, with the league’s pace-setters 11/2 to record a fifth straight victory in this competition.

The draw is a 7/2 shot, while Betfred have a couple of Price Boosts that may be of interest, including one on Roma to win with both teams scoring along the way. That is now 5/2, boosted from 2/1.

Today's Football Fixtures

Draw @ 7/2

You could be taken in by league-leading form on either side of the ledger, but I reckon there will be little in this one.

The Giallorossi might be la capolista domestically, but they haven’t been convincing when the emphasis has been on them in home matches.

They have plenty of the ball, but there is not that explosiveness about their attack which Gasperini’s Atalanta sides were always known for.

Meanwhile, Mike Tullberg and Midtjylland would probably take a point if offered it beforehand, with their excellent start to the league phase having helped them to build a four-point buffer on those chasing a top-eight spot.

So if they ask Roma to set the tone, we could be in for a tight one. And the 7/2 offered up for a point apiece looks tasty to me at an implied probability of 22.2%.

Football Odds

40-55 Booking Points @ 7/5

These are two sides averaging around two yellow cards per game each, and with just enough riding on this result for them to be committed to the cause there ought to be around four or five bookings at the Olimpico.

Midtjylland have been shown nine yellows in four league-phase games thus far to Roma’s seven, with the home side averaging 16.75 fouls conceded and the Danes 14.5.

With both sides generally enjoying the majority of possession (Roma 58.8%, Midtjylland 52%), duels will become important in this one.

So the conservative bet on 40-55 booking points seems the way to go at 7/5.