Red Bull Salzburg vs Porto Prediction: 3/1 Pablo to pay the price in Austria

Red Bull Salzburg missed out on qualifying for the league phase of the Uefa Champions League, losing their play-off tie with Club Brugge 4-2 on aggregate, and were subsequently dropped down to the Uefa Europa League. Their first league phase game of the competition comes against FC Porto on Thursday (20:00 BST, TNT Sports 6), at the Red Bull Arena in Austria.

Below are my Red Bull Salzburg vs Porto predictions, supported by all the latest team news and match odds.

Team News

Takumu Kawamura, John Mellberg, Karim Konate (all knee), Valentin Sulzbacher (ankle) and Justin Omoregie (Achilles) are out injured for Salzburg, who are also missing the suspended Clement Bischoff; he was shown a straight red card for former club Brondby in their 4-0 Uefa Conference League victory over Vikingur Reykjavik last month.

Soumaila Diabate was dismissed in the 22nd minute of Saturday's 2-0 defeat to Sturm Graz, but the Malian midfielder's ban only applies to domestic competitions.

Football Odds

Stephe Eustaquio is suspended for Porto after receiving a red in his side's last European game, a 3-2 knockout stage defeat to AS Roma in February.

Nehuen Perez (Achilles), Martim Fernandes (knee) and Alberto Costa (muscle) are out injured, while Luuk de Jong has missed the Dragons' last two matches.

Today's Football Fixtures

Red Bull Salzburg vs Porto Odds

Salzburg are winless in their last three games (D1, L2), and despite enjoying home advantage on Thursday, have been installed as underdogs against Porto, with odds of 12/5 suggesting a 29.4% probability of winning. The visitors, meanwhile, have won all six matches in Liga Portugal this season, conceding just one goal; the Dragons are 11/10 (47.6%) to triumph in Austria, and 11/4 to win to nil.

The draw is offered at 5/2, both teams to score at 8/13, and over 2.5 total goals at 8/11.

Anytime Goalscorer - Samu Aghehowa (FCP) @ 7/5

Samu enjoyed a sensational first season at Porto, scoring 27 goals across 45 appearances, including six in nine Europa League outings. Five of his European efforts came in the league phase, where only Olympiakos' Eyoub El Kaabi (seven) and Ferencvaros' Barnabas Varga (six) struck more times.

The 21-year-old also found the net twice at the 2025 Fifa Club World Cup in the USA, and has begun the new campaign brilliantly.

Samu has scored four goals in five Liga Portugal games, including one in each of his last two, and he will be confident of making it three in a row on Thursday as he comes up against a Salzburg side that has conceded 2+ goals in each of their last three matches.

Player to Receive a Card - Pablo Rosario (FCP) @ 3/1

With right-backs Costa and Fernandes both out injured, midfielder Pablo Rosario, a summer signing from French side OGC Nice, has been forced to cover the duo. It's not a completely alien position to the Dominican Republic international, but it's certainly not his favoured role.

Rosario opened the scoring in the fourth minute of Porto's 3-0 win at Rio Ave last Friday, finding the net following a corner, but he was booked just 21 minutes later for a second foul in three minutes on the home side's left-sided winger, Nikolaos Athanasiou. That was the 28-year-old's second yellow in three games for his new club, after he was booked 10 minutes into his debut against Sporting CP, despite only being sent on in the 58th minute.

The former PSV man was also cautioned in his country's 3-0 defeat to Jordan on September 9, meaning he has now picked up three yellows in his last four games for Porto and the Dominican Republic. He was shown six yellows and one red in Ligue 1 last season, and was issued one yellow and one red in the 2024/25 Europa League.

Rosario looks like a solid bet to go into the referee's notebook in Salzburg at 3/1.

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